The second most important race in Nevada

After the presidential election, what's the most important race in Nevada in 2012?

Is it the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, a race that could help tilt control of the chamber to the GOP and oust Nevada's Harry Reid as majority leader? Is it the 3rd Congressional District election between GOP Rep. Joe Heck and Democratic Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, a contest that could reveal whether another national anti-incumbent wave might sweep away freshmen House Republicans?

Those campaigns will get the most local headlines and attract the most money, but neither one deserves the No. 2 spot next year. The U.S. Senate is the gridlock chamber, where pretty much nothing gets done without 60 votes. And let's face it, congressional elections only determine how fast the national debt will grow, not whether deficit spending actually stops.

The second most important race in Nevada doesn't even cover an entire county. It will be decided in November by fewer than 100,000 Henderson-area voters.

According to state Sen. Michael Roberson, R-Las Vegas, the undercard to the White House campaign -- the Nevada race with the highest stakes -- is Senate District 5, a suddenly open legislative contest that likely will decide which party controls the upper chamber and, more importantly, whether some sort of political equilibrium is restored to the capital come 2013.

"The Legislature affects the quality of life of every single Nevadan," Roberson, the likely Senate Republican leader, said Thursday at a fundraising reception for his party's District 5 candidate, former Henderson City Councilman Steve Kirk. "We need balance in Carson City, and to do that, we (Republicans) have to take back the Senate."

Democrats enjoy a permanent majority in the Assembly, but they control the Senate by a single seat, 11-10. Democrats are defending most of their seats in next year's election, and District 5 is the most vulnerable. Its newly drawn boundaries give registered Democratic voters a 6 percentage-point advantage over registered Republicans, but the district includes much of Green Valley and other conservative neighborhoods.

Just one week ago, Kirk was challenging an incumbent. But on Monday, Democrat Sen. Shirley Breeden announced she was quitting the race to take care of her mother, who was seriously injured in a car accident earlier this year. Democrats immediately tapped former Sen. Joyce Woodhouse -- the person Roberson beat last year -- to run in Breeden's place.

When it comes to policy matters and political vulnerabilities, there's not much difference between Breeden and Woodhouse. The best friends are retired Clark County School District educators.

The sudden absence of an incumbent, however, dramatically changes Kirk's campaign. Donors and lobbyists understand too well that crossing an incumbent is politically risky. Backing a challenger who loses greatly increases the chances that lawmakers' doors will suddenly close and favored bills won't get committee hearings. Such scores are kept for years.

Kirk, however, already was attracting such defections before Breeden decided against re-election. Once she was officially out of the race, Kirk's host committee -- the list of prominent names and community leaders attached to fundraiser invitations to lure new supporters -- immediately expanded from 39 names to 49.

The crossover support Kirk is attracting isn't all that surprising. As a three-term councilman, Kirk had the backing of plenty of registered Democratic voters in nonpartisan municipal elections.

"There are people in this room I've disagreed with," Kirk said Thursday night. "But they're here. They're with me. I can tell you that my door will be open and I will listen."

Last year, there was much hand-wringing in the capital about the Senate Republican caucus becoming more conservative. Today, plenty of business leaders and lobbyists are afraid the Senate Democratic caucus is poised to become significantly more liberal. Far-left Assemblymen Tick Segerblom and Kelvin Atkinson, for example, are locks to win Senate races next year.

If Republicans can't flip Breeden's seat or another Democratic district, Segerblom and Atkinson, who are openly hostile to business, would be locks for prominent committee chairmanships. And if that isn't a scary enough prospect, how about Sen. Sheila Leslie, D-Reno, who'd love to see Nevada adopt levels of taxation that would make California lawmakers jealous, helming the Finance Committee?

The contrasts in the Kirk-Woodhouse campaign perfectly represent the larger stakes of party control of the Senate. Kirk works in the private sector, understands the challenges businesses face in expanding and creating new jobs and sees the need for education, collective bargaining and pension reforms. Woodhouse spent her career in the public sector and opposes reforms to education, collective bargaining and state pensions -- and actually wants to expand collective bargaining rights to state workers.

The fate of these policy matters could very well come down to the result of this race -- the second most important campaign in Nevada.

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is a Review-Journal editorial writer.