AFC an over, NFC under in title games

When the betting lines were posted for last year's NFL divisional playoffs, my opinions were quickly formed. But both of today's conference championships require plenty of painstaking thought.

A solid case can be made for all four teams perched one win from the Super Bowl. Here's a scouting report on the AFC and NFC title games:

• New York Jets at Indianapolis (-8): The Jets were given a pass-go card by the Colts in Week 16 of the regular season. Lo and behold, the Jets now have an opportunity to knock out Indianapolis. Ironic? You bet.

The Jets are this postseason's Cinderella story. A rookie coach and rookie quarterback have the opportunity to accomplish what was unthinkable a few weeks ago. New York's running attack has been strong and Mark Sanchez has protected the ball.

But it's the Jets defense that has stolen the show and two playoff victories. The chess match between New York's incessant blitzing and Peyton Manning will be fun to watch.

Indianapolis looked disoriented at times against the Baltimore defense last weekend. The Colts have maintained this past week that the Ravens' defensive approach is extremely similar to what New York has to offer. That makes sense, as Jets coach Rex Ryan took that package with him from Baltimore to the Big Apple.

Also, the Colts' starters got a taste of what the Jets do during the first half of Week 16, before putting their feet up in the recliner.

New York will try to take away Manning's big guns. Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark will garner plenty of attention from the Jets, meaning the wideout duo of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon might have the best chance to step up and make some plays. Manning could need an extra piece of equipment for this game -- a drool cup. He welcomes extra pressure. If the offensive line can buy him an extra second, he'll find the mismatches in the secondary.

As for the Jets' offense, they will again look to pound it on the ground. In the regular-season meeting, Thomas Jones ran for 105 yards and rookie Shonn Greene banged out 95. Many of those yards came against backups in the second half.

Since then, Greene has become the go-to guy in the backfield. He has been impressive in the playoffs, gaining 135 yards on 21 carries at Cincinnati and 128 on 23 carries last weekend at San Diego. He was the Jets' quick-strike weapon in both wins, recording a 39-yard touchdown run against the Bengals and providing the margin of victory over the Chargers with a 53-yard sprint.

It's hard to pull the trigger on a side in this game. The key in that regard may be the first 10 minutes. The Jets aren't built to come from far back, so they can't let Manning get rolling early.

The total has dropped by 11/2 points during the past week. I envision Manning inflicting his regular dose of damage against the Jets, with the odd turnover giving New York a short field and enhanced scoring opportunities.

The Jets will move the ball on the ground and give Sanchez some play-action opportunities. I also think the rookie makes his share of mistakes that lead to points for the Colts.

Hence, over the total of 39 is the play I recommend in the AFC Championship Game.

• Minnesota at New Orleans (-31/2): The shootout everyone is anticipating might not materialize in the NFC Championship Game at the Louisiana Superdome.

Arizona's defense was porous in two playoff games, surrendering 45 points each in a victory over Green Bay and a loss at New Orleans. The Saints will be hard-pressed to have that type of field day against the Vikings.

Brett Favre lit up the Cowboys for 34 points, with a piling-on touchdown at the end. What the betting public last witnessed was the Vikings and Saints rolling up a combined 79 points last weekend.

Forget the hype about Favre and Drew Brees, because the ultimate star of this game will be a defender.

Veteran safety Darren Sharper springs to mind for the Saints. Will he be able to pull the old bait-and-switch against Favre? For the Vikings, their run-stuffing tackles and Jared Allen are easy picks, but I think cornerback Antoine Winfield will make several immense plays. He's the best cornerback in the league against the run and can put a hurt on unsuspecting wideouts.

The Super Bowl is on the line today, and the total of 53 points is hefty. Both teams are capable of creating turnovers, and I would look for both offenses to be a tad more cautious than they were last weekend.

Under is the way I'm going here.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.