Kentucky’s defense could lead way to upset at Texas A&M

Kentucky was perhaps the surprise of September in college football.

Despite facing a two-loss team, Kentucky (5-0) is a 6-point underdog at Texas A&M (3-2).

Sure, if the Wildcats need to rely on QB Terry Wilson to win this game at a hostile Kyle Field, the chances are this underdog story will diminish.

But even that is a strange assumption.

Give props to Kentucky RB Benny Snell, who leads the Southeastern Conference in carries and rushing yards. But the reason the Wildcats have been able to run the ball such a high percentage of the time is the defense, which ranks No. 3 in the S&P+ ratings.

Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen leads the SEC with 10½ tackles for loss and six sacks. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is No. 121 in sack rate. The Wildcats should pressure Aggies QB Kellen Mond early and often.

Texas A&M has scored 26, 23 and 24 points against Power 5 competition so far. Expect Kentucky to stay within a field goal and possibly to win outright.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Iowa State (+9½) over OKLAHOMA STATE: Iowa State lost by 10 at Iowa, by 10 to Oklahoma and by three at Texas Christian. All three of those teams are higher in my power rankings than the Cowboys. Cyclones RB David Montgomery (1,146 rushing yards in 2017) has been upgraded to probable. Coach Matt Campbell is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of last year. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has already lost receivers Jalen McCleskey, Patrick McKaufman and Tracin Wallace, and now Dillon Stoner is questionable. Iowa State’s rush defense is respectable, and Cowboys QB Taylor Cornelius completed only 57.1 percent of his passes against Boise State, Texas Tech and Kansas.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-5½) over Boston College: Most understand that Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley is an NFL prospect capable of tearing up mediocre defenses. But did anyone foresee N.C. State ranking in the top 30 in the defensive S&P+ ratings despite losing its entire defensive line? Boston College has given up 34, 30 and 35 points to Wake Forest, Purdue and Temple in the past three weeks. N.C. State could score in the 40s in this game, and the Wolfpack are good enough to slow down Eagles RB A.J. Dillon on some drives. Buy N.C. State early before they get hype.

Syracuse (-3) over PITTSBURGH: Let’s recap the biggest moments of the Panthers’ season. First, Pitt lost to Penn State 51-6 as a 7-point underdog. Then Pitt lost to an otherwise-winless North Carolina at home. And last week, Pitt lost 45-14 to UCF as a 13½-point underdog. Pitt is 1-4 ATS and Syracuse is 4-1 ATS. This is not a perfect spot for the Orange, playing a second consecutive road game after an emotional loss at Clemson. But Syracuse is a more complete team than most imagined. I have Syracuse power rated at No. 40 and Pitt at No. 74. Take the Orange.

Nebraska (+18) over WISCONSIN: The Badgers have not been able to pass protect well for Alex Hornibrook, who remains limited as a passer. Wisconsin also has just two receivers with double-digit catches and more than 100 yards. Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor has been efficient but not explosive, and Wisconsin’s defense isn’t as good as it was last year. Meanwhile, Nebraska had postgame win expectancies of 94 percent vs. Colorado and 55 percent vs. Troy and lost both. The market is too high on Wisconsin and too low on Nebraska, as this should be more like a two-touchdown game.

Last week: 2-3 ATS

Season: 9-16

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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.