Bills have company in cellar

As beleaguered as the Buffalo Bills are and as hopeless as coach Dick Jauron appears, they have plenty of company in the basement.

The newest challenge of handicapping the NFL is found in the decline in its quality of play. Some teams are playing at such a level of incompetence, bettors are faced each week with the problem of dealing with double-digit underdogs who are performing so poorly it is embarrassing.

"These teams present a dilemma for bookmakers, oddsmakers and bettors," longtime Las Vegas handicapper Kelso Sturgeon said. "Bookmakers seem handcuffed in making numbers on the bad teams. Gone are the days when one could recite the old mantra, 'On any given Sunday, the worst NFL team can beat the best.' If you believe that now, you have punched your ticket to financial disasters."

Much ado was made of the fact the Detroit Lions (1-4) snapped their 19-game skid three weeks ago. But the Lions still are 1-20 in their past 21 games and 2-26 in their past 28.

The Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) are 2-28 in their past 30 games. The St. Louis Rams (0-5) have lost 15 straight and are 2-19 in their past 21. The Oakland Raiders (1-4), Cleveland Browns (1-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) are teetering on the edge of oblivion, and the formerly proud Tennessee Titans (0-5) have disintegrated.

The Bills (1-4) are 3-12 in their past 15 games and have lost back-to-back games to winless teams.

"That is why I find the New York Jets the breath of fresh air this bettor needs," Sturgeon said.

The Jets, 3-2 straight up and against the spread, are 91/2-point home favorites over the Bills, and Sturgeon is not about to back a bad team.

"The Jets are my best bet of the weekend," said Sturgeon

(Kelsosportshandicapping.com). "The Jets are everything the Bills are not.

"The Jets have a solid offensive line. Buffalo starts a young group on its offensive line that was tagged for nine false-start penalties last week. If the Cleveland defensive front made them nervous, one only can imagine how goosey they will be facing Jets Pro Bowl nose tackle Kris Jenkins."

The New York defense has allowed 17.6 points and 304.8 yards per game and should ace a test against a Buffalo offense that in the past three games has averaged 6.7 points.

The recent addition of receiver Braylon Edwards gives rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez another big-play target the Jets needed.

First-year coach Rex Ryan is eager for his team to regain its swagger on the heels of back-to-back losses at Miami and New Orleans.

"The figures say the Jets are a team ready to play their best game of the season against a team that does not seem to have the ability to do anything right," said Sturgeon, who analyzes the rest of today's Week 6 schedule:

• Kansas City at Washington (-6): One of my rules of handicapping is to never ask a bad team to win a bet for me. In this game we have the terrible Chiefs facing a mysteriously limited and inept 2-3 Redskins team, and the rule says I must pass on this one.

• Houston at Cincinnati (-51/2): I have great respect for the Bengals and believe they are as good -- or maybe better than -- their 4-1 record, but they are in somewhat of a physical and psychological twilight zone against the Texans (2-3). Cincinnati has paid a price to get here, with a 7-point win at Green Bay, a 3-point home win against Pittsburgh, a 3-point win at Cleveland and last week a last-second 17-14 win at Baltimore. Trees do not grow to the sky, and the figures say the Bengals are a bit out of gas and will struggle. The Texans should get the cover.

• Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14): The Steelers (3-2) are not playing up to expectations, but they have Cleveland over a barrel. For openers, let's give the Browns credit for scoring enough points (six) to win at Buffalo last week. But a trip back to reality says it will not happen in Pittsburgh against a defense that gives up 290.8 yards per game. Cleveland has failed to score a touchdown in three games this season and nine times in its past 11 games dating to last season. The Steelers should march to the winner's circle with points to spare.

• Baltimore at Minnesota (-3): The figures reveal two things about this game: Baltimore is better than its 3-2 record, and Minnesota is not as good as its 5-0 start. Both teams have all the offensive and defensive weapons and skill players to get the money. That makes this an even game, and the fact the Ravens have lost their past two -- at New England, where the Ravens lost 27-21 to the Patriots and the officials, and last week at home against Cincinnati -- brings them to the Metrodome driven and humorless. That trumps the home-field edge. Baltimore should win outright.

• St. Louis at Jacksonville (-91/2): It is difficult to get involved in any game involving the winless Rams, who average 6.8 points per game, and a Jaguars team coming off a 41-0 loss at Seattle. As they say, "I wouldn't bet counterfeit money on this game." I will pass.

• N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-31/2): This has all the ingredients for one of the best games of the season. But I am looking to win a bet not to be entertained. The Giants are 5-0 and New Orleans is 4-0, so we have two outstanding teams. There is a temptation to take the Giants plus-3 on the basis of their lock-down defense (210.6 yards per game), but my better judgment says to pass.

• Carolina (-31/2) at Tampa Bay: Neither the Panthers (1-3) nor Bucs seem to possess the ability to score, so that puts the focus on the total. Carolina is averaging 14.3 points and 282 yards of offense, while Tampa Bay is set at 13.6 and 284. My money is under the 391/2 total.

• Detroit at Green Bay (-14): One does not like that the Lions most likely will be without wide receiver Calvin Johnson, but their cause is helped with the possibility that rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford probably is out with a knee injury. This means Detroit will start veteran Daunte Culpepper at quarterback, and that is something for which the team quietly has pleaded. They believe he gives them a better chance to win. With that in mind, I look for Detroit to play its best game to prove the point. The Packers (2-2) come off a bye and should win, but I like the Lions to get the cover.

• Philadelphia (-14) at Oakland: I have put my best powers of recall in motion and cannot find in my memory an NFL team that is as bad as the Raiders. The only question I have is how they beat Kansas City. Oakland's offense averages 9.8 points and 191.6 yards per game and now has to take the field against an Eagles defense that takes no prisoners. These teams do not breathe the same air, and it all begins with the quarterbacks. The Eagles (3-1) have the services of the outstanding Donovan McNabb while Oakland starts JaMarcus Russell, who might be the worst No. 1 draft choice in history. A substantial bet on the Eagles is in order.

• Arizona at Seattle (-3): The Seahawks benefited from the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck last week. But I can think of more reasons to bet against each of these teams than I can to bet on them. I must pass.

• Tennessee at New England (-91/2): The decline and fall of the Titans, who opened last season 10-0, is stunning. Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins is out of gas after 15 seasons in the league, and the Titans have no confidence in backup Vince Young. It is no accident Tennessee is an offensive disaster and arrives in New England averaging 16.8 points and 335.8 yards per game. Now factor into the equation the Titans are worse on defense, giving up 27.8 points per game, compared to 14.6 last year. There is not one edge New England (3-2) does not have in this game, and the fact the Patriots come into this off a 20-17 overtime loss at Denver last week should have them in a focused frame of mind. My money is on New England.

• Chicago at Atlanta (-31/2): The Falcons (3-1) got a 45-10 blowout win against overrated San Francisco last week, but it still was an impressive performance. While Atlanta was beating the 49ers, Chicago (3-1) was on a bye week.

On can analyze this game from many angles and conclude these teams are even. But I have the gut feeling the Bears will get the job done, so the underdog gets my money.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans.