Experts at odds on which teams makes safer bet

It's tough not to be impressed with all the numbers piled up by Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, who has made shredding defenses look easy this season.

Bradford has passed for 4,464 yards and 48 touchdowns, with only six interceptions in 442 attempts. On paper, he appears to be a deserving winner of the Heisman Trophy.

But bettors are not overwhelmed by Bradford and the Sooners, and the proof of that is in the number on today's Bowl Championship Series title game.

Florida is a 41/2-point favorite over Oklahoma. The opening line sent out by Las Vegas Sports Consultants was 11/2, and until recently the line was 3 at most sports books.

"I'm amazed it's up to 41/2," LVSC oddsmaker Ken White said. "I don't see Florida as four points better. I think it's going to be a tighter game, and Oklahoma has got a good shot to win."

But White said he sees why the betting public is behind the Gators, who are 12-1 straight up and 11-1 against the spread.

The legitimacy of Bradford's passing numbers is doubted because some of the Big 12 Conference defenses he tore up -- specifically Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech -- also made embarrassing showings in bowl games.

"With how the bowls have gone so far, the Big 12 teams have looked a little shaky, and their defenses are being questioned," White said. "The other thing is, the guy who wins the Heisman usually doesn't perform well in the bowl."

Paramount Sports handicapper Lee Sterling recommends wagering on Florida, which is led by quarterback Tim Tebow, the 2007 Heisman winner.

"Tebow seems to be on a mission since the Gators' home loss to Mississippi in late September. He took Bradford receiving the Heisman as a slight, and I'll back Tebow with a chip on his shoulder all the time," Sterling said. "The Gators' defense is under the radar as it is overshadowed by Tebow and all his playmakers on offense."

Florida allowed only one opponent (Mississippi) to score more than 21 points all season.

"Oklahoma scored 60-plus points in its last five games, but I've seen better defenses in flag football leagues than the Sooners faced of late," said Sterling (paramountsports.com). "The Gators' offense doesn't score as many points as Oklahoma, but they are balanced, rushing for over 3,000 yards and passing for over 2,800 yards, and are led by possibly the best run-pass quarterback of all time in Tebow."

The Sooners allowed 21 points or more in all of their last eight games.

White said a successful math model he used this season projects Bradford to pass for 318 yards and Oklahoma to outgain Florida by 53 yards.

But Sterling, putting more stock in Tebow and the Gators' defense, said, "In a big game, I always want to back the team with the better defense, special teams play and blazing team speed, and Florida has all three of those elements."

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.

BCS PROPOSITION BETS

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has posted more than 20 prop bets on today's Oklahoma-Florida game, including:

• The first score of the game will be: Touchdown minus-450; Any other plus-375

• Total completions for the Gators' Tim Tebow: 151/2 Over/under minus-110

• Total rushing yards for Tebow: 401/2 Over/under minus-110

• Total pass attempts for the Sooners' Sam Bradford: 391/2 Over/under minus-110

• Touchdown passes by Bradford: 21/2 Over minus-160; Under plus-140