Falcons motivated to soar

This is the week of the NFL season that turns oddsmakers and bettors alike into daredevils. Everyone is taking the leap of faith and developing an opinion on what might transpire in today's games.

I've been tapped on the shoulder and asked to try to decipher the problem. Why not a simpler proposition, like coming up with solutions for world peace and health care?

It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it. I feel like a member of the bomb squad.

I'm torn between two games as my best plays. One game matters to both teams, and the other does not in relation to the playoffs but apparently does in a big way to the organization and its fans.

The Atlanta Falcons never have recorded back-to-back winning seasons since their inception in 1966. After finding a way to beat the New York Jets two weeks ago in a low-scoring game, the Falcons made it clear they had a goal in mind despite having been eliminated from the postseason picture.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith made a point of finishing strong, and it seems the players have bought in as well. Veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez, referring to a winning season, said, "I think it's real important that we go out and get that done."

Gonzalez and the Falcons pounded the Buffalo Bills into submission 31-3 last week.

Atlanta shoots for a 9-7 finish today at Tampa Bay. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out this line Falcons minus-3, but it opened Buccaneers minus-1 offshore. The Falcons are 21/2-point favorites.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is returning to form, and this will be his third week back from an injury. The Buccaneers are flying high after victories over Seattle and New Orleans, but they are bad.

Consecutive winning seasons won't get the Falcons into the playoffs, but it could make for a profitable conclusion to the regular season for those who are willing to buy into Atlanta's motivation.

My other featured play is over the total of 46 in the New England-Houston game.

The Texans, who are 7-point favorites, remain breathing, but the monitor is beeping loudly. The Patriots can secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC, which means something.

We've heard the travails of the defense in New England all season long, highlighted by coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for a game-clinching fourth-down conversion at Indianapolis. The Patriots also have been more than willing to grind it out in an attempt to shorten games, but that dog won't hunt.

New England must outscore teams and not take the ball out of their best player's hands. Last week against Jacksonville, Tom Brady was 23-for-26 passing for 267 yards and four touchdowns. It could be an entertaining aerial show in Houston, with Matt Schaub matching Brady pass for pass.

My analysis of the rest of today's schedule:

• Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8): The Colts have been taking heat for yanking their starters out of a winnable game last week, with an unbeaten season hanging in the balance. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark should not have even boarded the team plane for this trip.

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch should run effectively against the Colts' backups, and the only saving grace for the Bills' season has been the play of their defense. Indianapolis will be hard-pressed to score with the collection of rookies and third-string players that will see the light of day. I'm looking at Buffalo and under 34.

• New Orleans at Carolina (-7): The Panthers have played with passion recently on defense, running back Jonathan Stewart has been a workhorse, and members of the coaching staff found out this past week they still have jobs. Quarterback Matt Moore has been the anti-Jake Delhomme and has not treated the football like a hand grenade. The Saints will rest Drew Brees, look forward to the playoffs and get beat here decisively.

• Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1): Break up the Browns. They now have a running attack and are riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. The Jaguars at one point controlled their postseason destiny and instead secured tee times for the offseason. Jacksonville has ruled out three starters -- wideout Torry Holt, tight end Marcedes Lewis and cornerback Rashean Mathis. Take the Browns.

• Philadelphia at Dallas (-3): This is monster game with a division title, home-field advantage and, for the Eagles, a first-round bye on the line. With all that's at stake, this still is not a playoff game. Last year in Dallas, these teams were involved in one of the wildest shootouts you'll ever see, with the Cowboys winning, 41-37. I look for more of the same as this game flies over the total of 47.

• Chicago (-3) at Detroit: The Bears looked good against the Vikings on Monday and should be tough again in this spot. The Lions offense has been woeful since rookie Matthew Stafford was put on the shelf.

• Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami: The Dolphins' playoff run probably will come up short, but they always play hard. The Steelers have been doing it with smoke and mirrors the past few weeks. I can see the Dolphins showing up and winning outright.

• New York Giants at Minnesota (-9): The Giants publicly have apologized to their fans for a disappointing season. The Vikings were solid in the second half against the Bears but came up short in overtime. It has been a bumpy road for Minnesota recently, and I'm not sure everyone there is on the same page. The Giants put up a fight and cover.

• Cincinnati at New York Jets (-10): These teams could meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Bengals might find that matchup enticing. Cincinnati will know by kickoff if it can improve its position. I'd look for the Bengals to be as vanilla as a preseason game.

• San Francisco (-71/2) at St. Louis: Are the Rams dumb enough to win this game and possibly blow the first pick in the draft? I watched the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, and the Rams have to be salivating at the chance of landing Nebraska stud defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. I hope someone in the St. Louis football department was watching. Take a pass here.

• Green Bay at Arizona (-31/2): I think the Packers will be a live team when postseason play commences. But I couldn't go near this game with a telephone pole, as it is a possible rematch in the first round of the playoffs and the Packers shouldn't show much. It's ironic that the wild-card team might be the one resting players in this spot. The Cardinals have an outside shot at securing the NFC's No. 2 seed if the Eagles and Vikings lose. On that basis, the slightest of leans goes to Arizona.

• Kansas City at Denver (-11): The Broncos need to win and have Halley's comet fly over Colorado to get in the playoffs. This might be a disheartened bunch, and now wideout Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler have been benched. The Chiefs are no great shakes, but it is a division game, and the spread is too lofty for me to side with the Broncos.

• Baltimore (-101/2) at Oakland: I've heard talk of the Raiders being a live 'dog in this spot. I know the Ravens are traveling cross-country, but they have plenty on the line and are another team that could be a tough out in the playoffs. No more clowning around from Baltimore. The Black Hole reportedly will be only half-filled for the game. The Ravens have this one put away by halftime.

• Washington at San Diego (-31/2): The Chargers have nothing to play for, but the problem is the San Diego cheerleaders could suit up in the secondary and keep the Redskins from scoring. Chargers coach Norv Turner said quarterback Philip Rivers will start and give way to backup Billy Volek at some point. Stay away.

• Tennessee (-51/2) at Seattle: This is another dicey proposition. The Titans, led by Vince Young and running back Chris Johnson, have expended a lot of energy in bouncing back from their 0-6 start. The Seahawks should be fresh because they haven't shown up the past few weeks. It would be the Titans or nothing for me, and nothing seems the prudent way to go.

Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.