Lineup decisions crucial for playoffs

This is it for most of us. It's the first week of the fantasy football playoffs -- do or die, loser leaves town, put-up-or- shut-up time.

We've gone the entire season maneuvering as much as possible to get to this stage, whether it was making a great midseason pickup by grabbing a player like Dallas Cowboys wideout Miles Austin or trading for what was considered dead weight in San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson.

There were times when you made the right call in whom to start or sit on tough weeks when you were on the fence. At the time, not much risk was felt. What the heck, if you made the wrong call, it was just a loss, and there's always next week.

However, make the wrong call this week and there is no next week. Next week becomes next season, and it's back to the drawing board waiting with anticipation for the new recruits in the NFL Draft.

There is no time for leniency like you've had all season with certain players who have not produced according to projections. Weeks have passed when a player such as Carolina Panthers wideout Steve Smith has not performed up to his past standards but other players on your team have carried his load.

There is that dilemma fighting within your mind that keeps telling you this will be the week when a player like Smith will come up big and warrant the trust you showed in making him an early-round selection. The last thing you want to have happen is Smith finally coming up big when he's sitting on your bench.

But the reality is Smith has lived up to his billing as a top-flight receiver in only four of his 12 games this season. Compounding his status as possible bench material is the fact that inexperienced quarterback Matt Moore will be throwing the ball to him Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Smith is one example of several players who have failed to live up to their potential and might be cause for drastic measures in these do-or-die weeks.

It helps if you have players sitting on your bench capable of stepping in, but if not, scan the waiver wire and see who is available. It's all about who's hot now. Here's a few to take a look at this week:

• Although it has been only one week, one receiver who is hot is Washington's Devin Thomas. He had the breakout performance of his career last week with a 100-yard game and two touchdowns against the Saints. Jason Campbell looked for Thomas throughout the game as his go-to guy, and that relationship should evolve over the final four games.

• Oakland's Louis Murphy has a tough game against the Redskins' pass defense this week, but it's apparent Murphy is Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski's favorite target after Murphy put up 120 yards and two scores against the Steelers in Week 13.

• Tennessee wideout Kenny Britt has developed as Vince Young has during the Titans' 5-1 run. Britt has scored in three straight games and has great value this week as the Titans host the St. Louis Rams.

• Josh Morgan was supposed to be a player who stepped up for the San Francisco 49ers coming into the season, but it didn't happen. In his past two games in the spread offense, with Isaac Bruce being sidelined, Morgan has had his most productive games of the year with six catches in each and a touchdown. The 49ers probably will be more productive through the air than on the ground against a stingy Arizona run defense this week.

Finally, here's a reminder for the positive thinkers who believe they will advance in the fantasy football playoffs: If you have Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Brett Favre and don't have a serviceable backup, take a chance with Alex Smith, Young, Campbell or Brady Quinn, in that order, as insurance.

It's likely that the final games for Indianapolis, New Orleans and Minnesota won't mean anything for playoff positioning, so starters will not play the entire game.

Micah Roberts is a Las Vegas-based writer who contributes weekly fantasy football outlooks for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@gmail.com.