Midseason sleepers giving wake-up call to team owners

Without a doubt, the most difficult part of this gig is finding story ideas.

The crafting of sentences, the attempts at humor, the pleas for readership -- those are easy. They don't always work, but trust me, I'm not trying too hard at them. I hope it doesn't show. I'm sure it does.

But trying to find something relevant going on my ninth week isn't easy. So I did some research and came up with one absolutely indisputable fact: None of us -- not me, not you, not the Yahoo! fantasy guys, not the ESPN fantasy guys -- knows what we're doing.

Take a look at last week's top 25 fantasy scorers, and think about where half of them were when the season started. Heck, I'll do it for you.

Ryan Grant? Roddy White? Andre Hall?

Each was a third-string player who barely made his respective squad and was close to bagging groceries or playing in the Canadian Football League. Now, they made some poor schlub's weekend.

And don't get me started on Kolby Smith.

So I offer just one piece of advice: In this wacky fantasy football world of ours, there's just one thing you can do.

Cross your fingers.

On to the locks -- who am I kidding? Locks? -- of the week:

MONEYMAKERS

Top-tier players who should perform to their value:

• Edgerrin James, Arizona running back vs. Cleveland: After a hot start, the Edge has cooled down quite a bit. He's had one stinker in each four-game stretch of the season, and he seems due for one. But not this week. The Browns are the fifth-worst team in the NFL against the run, allowing more than 130 yards per game.

• Jon Kitna, Detroit quarterback vs. Minnesota: Kitna hasn't been quite the fantasy force many predicted. While he's tallied tons of yardage, his tendency to turn the ball over (17 turnovers, 14 touchdowns) has hurt him greatly. But the Vikings are awful against the pass, and Kitna will capitalize.

• Kellen Winslow, Cleveland tight end vs. Arizona: Winslow has come into his own as a player and seemingly put his questionable antics behind him. He truly has become an elite option, evidenced by seven games of 80-plus yards. Better yet is his 14.1 yard-per-catch average. Watch Derek Anderson target him deep three or more times against the Cardinals this weekend.

WINGMEN

Midround picks who should feast on favorable matchups:

• Kurt Warner, Arizona quarterback vs. Cleveland: The touch of gray in his goatee is just about the only thing that's revealed Warner's age (36) over the last few weeks. With quarterback ratings of 99.7, 104.8 and 108.4 in that span, he has become -- gasp! -- a viable quarterback option in all leagues, and his stretch run might be better than anyone's. With the Browns this week, followed by Seattle, New Orleans, Atlanta and St. Louis, he'll continue his string of success.

• Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay running back vs. New Orleans: As with Warner, I'm stretching the boundaries of "midround pick" to include Graham. If Matt Leinart or Cadillac Williams were healthy, they'd be in this spot. After a rough midseason patch that saw him register just one decent game -- a 191-yards-from-scrimmage performance in Week 7 -- Graham has scored in three straight games and averaged just over 100 yards in those games. It won't end this week.

• Wes Welker, New England wide receiver vs. Baltimore: If Randy Moss is the Kevin Garnett and Donte Stallworth is the Paul Pierce, that makes Welker the Ray Allen of this Big Three. And Welker fits the role perfectly -- a bit under the radar, but incredibly clutch. The guy has a remarkable seven above-average games this season, and the Ravens won't stop him, either.

BANK-BREAKERS

Top-tier guys who won't perform up to their value:

• Carson Palmer, Cincinnati quarterback vs. Pittsburgh: It might be blasphemy to suggest sitting Palmer a week after he tore apart a good Tennessee defense, but it could be a good idea. The Steelers are the best defensive team in the league, and they've typically holstered the Bengals quarterback. If you have a decent No. 2 -- Warner, for example -- make the switch.

• Willis McGahee, Buffalo running back vs. New England: What, you talkin' about Willis? I love the guy, I really do. Big Willis guy here. But the Patriots are just too good up front, and they will bottle up McGahee this week.

• Plaxico Burress, New York Giants receiver vs. Chicago: Burress had been a fantasy nonfactor for a month before his outburst last week against Minnesota, which has the worst pass defense in the league. Chicago's defense is a shell of its former self but still has the team speed to shut down Eli Manning. Then again, my Pop Warner team had the defensive team speed to shut down Eli Manning.

QUICK PICK SIX

The best bets for the week, based on value:

• Warner, Graham, Winslow, Marques Colston (vs. Tampa Bay); Chris Cooley (vs. Buffalo), Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cincinnati).

Jon Gold is a Review-Journal sportswriter with 10 fantasy football teams. His column is published Friday. He can be reached at jgold@reviewjournal.com.