Changing Conditions at Phoenix Track Will Play a Big Role Saturday Night
Saturday night’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Phoenix is going to be a tale of three races in one and which driver adapts to all three the best as the race goes on. The race starts in the bright Arizona sunlight at 4:45 p.m. (PDT), where the anticipated temperature will be about 85 degrees. The drivers will race for a few hours under those conditions until twilight hits at about 6:30 p.m., and then by 7 it will be completely dark with temperatures much cooler than when it started.
Each of those stages will be critical for every team involved because the surface and temperature of the track will change drastically. The crews for each team will have to slowly make the transition from day to night racing a little bit at each pit stop with the combined goal of having the optimum setup for the final stages of racing at night and finishing strong.
Phoenix International Raceway changed the length of its race from 500 kilometers to 600 because of the earlier NASCAR-mandated start time, which would have had the race ending just as twilight hit. The difference equates to about 63 laps, but also ensures that the spring Phoenix race remains unique because of the day/night changes.
Because the race is being run on a Saturday, the practice and qualifying schedule was compacted into one Friday session, which changes a normal pattern set by the crews as well as everyone else who use the practice speeds as a barometer in trying to figure out who will do well. On a normal weekend, we have a practice session Friday, which is used mostly with qualifying trim, then the teams qualify, take a break, and practice for real on Saturday.
The two sessions Saturday are critical for handicappers, bookmakers and fantasy players to get the best read on who the drivers to beat will be. This week in Phoenix, we have a jumbled mess because everyone was trying many different things to prepare for the different expected conditions on Saturday.
Following Friday’s qualifying session, the teams will not get any other practice time and will have to do their final tinkering as the race goes on.
More so than with other races to determine who might win, we have to look at recent past history of a driver’s performance at not only Phoenix, but Richmond and New Hampshire as well. While none of those three tracks are similar on paper, they all have relatively flat banking and are a mile or less in distance. Crew chiefs who have had success on one of the three tracks often will bring the same chassis to the other two because the setup requirements are similar.
The practices are still important and critical to the calculations, but because it was a much different kind of practice this week, it doesn’t hold as true as with other tracks. So this week, we’ll place a lot of emphasis on what chassis certain drivers have brought for the race, mixed in with some notes about practice.
Jimmie Johnson has won four of the last five races at Phoenix and it just so happens he brought the same car he won with in the last Phoenix race. He wasn’t spectacular in practice and only ran a few laps with qualifying trim on in the final session Friday, but chances are that this car is set up to run its best when the lights come on with cooler temperatures. Knowing this, it’s likely crew chief Chad Knaus made only minor adjustments for the early stages of the race because you can’t win a race at the beginning.
Denny Hamlin is an interesting candidate to win because he’s on the injured list. Following his Martinsville win two weeks ago, Hamlin had surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee. He has Casey Mears on standby just in case he can’t go the distance because of the pain.
Should Hamlin hand over the steering wheel to Mears during a pit stop, chances are that they’ll go a lap down, which makes Hamlin a risky play this week. However, he had a great practice run Friday and brought the same car that finished third at Phoenix last fall.
All indications show that it will be tough to get Hamlin to get out of the car while the race is going, especially if he’s having a good run. He’s a competitor, the team finally ran well with their win at Martinsville, and he’ll want to keep the momentum going as much as he can.
Tony Stewart hasn’t been talked about too much this season, but has managed to quietly put himself eighth in points. He brought his second-place Phoenix chassis from this race last year which, coupled with a great practice on Friday, makes him a solid contender to get his first Phoenix win since his rookie year of 1999.
Along the same lines as Stewart is his teammate Ryan Newman who brought his same chassis that ran at both Phoenix and Richmond races last season. He finished in the top-10 of both Richmond races. During the final stages of practice, Newman reeled off the third-fastest lap while in qualifying trim.
Jeff Burton is a two-time winner at Phoenix, along with multiple wins combined at New Hampshire and Richmond. The team struggled early in practice but gathered itself nicely toward the end Friday with good speeds in qualifying trim. The best thing about Burton this week is that he brought the same car that finished second in Phoenix last November.
Mark Martin should be considered a candidate just because he won this race last season. He practiced well Friday, but the car he’s using is new which always leaves some uncertainty to its capabilities because it has no track record. Jimmie Johnson has proven this year that a new car can win a race, but Johnson is in an entirely different class.
Greg Biffle is a nice candidate to run well this week just because he runs well every week. He’s the only driver this season to have finished the first six races within the top 10. Biffle had a strong practice with the fourth-fastest single lap and has done well at Phoenix in all series in the past. His most recent success was a fifth-place finish in this race last year.
Drivers that could surprise this week include Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray and Dale Earnhardt Jr. McMurray had a great first practice but couldn’t get any speed with qualifying trim on. Joey Logano was smooth for the entire day Friday, and Earnhardt Jr, a two-time Phoenix winner, had a good first practice.
Don’t put too much into start position for this race, even though it has proved very critical the last four races. Only 10 of the 27 Phoenix races have been won from a top-five starting position with only four more getting wins while starting among the top 10. However, the last four races have been won from a top-five starting position. Based on this week's lineup, it doesn’t appear anyone of the top nine starters can win.
Driver Quotes
Kevin Harvick on the challenge of the changing conditions:
“It’s going to be a challenge because a lot of it depends on the type of weather that we have. If it’s really hot during the day, then it usually cools off quite a bit at night. As soon as the sun goes behind the suites in Turns 1 and 2, the temperature really drops and the track gains quite a bit of grip. The lap times generally pick up a few tenths of a lap.”
Jeff Burton on how he can turn last year's runner-up Phoenix finish into a win:
“Phoenix has been a really good racetrack for me. I felt that if we had qualified better and been up front earlier, we would have been hard to beat in that race. We were really fast and got by a lot of cars early but never had good track position until later in the race. It’s been a while since I’ve won there and we’re going back to finish where we left off in the fall. The key for us to do that is to go back better than we were and respond better to the spoiler than everybody else.”
Tony Stewart on what makes the Phoenix track so slick:
“It is just Phoenix. But that is what makes it fun, too; it makes us work as drivers. You have got to not overdrive your car. It is very sensitive to heat and that makes us as drivers have to work harder.”
Jeff Gordon on how his Friday Phoenix practice and qualifying sessions went:
"Under the conditions, I am pretty happy our team had a very impressive day. We started the day really far off, so we tried a few new things and experimented since we’re early in the season. It’s hard to do that when we have all our practices in just one day. I’m really proud of my guys; they didn’t give up and we made big gains certainly for qualifying as well. We’ll see what happens tomorrow night in the race."
Roberts Driver Ratings
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top-rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car — or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or matchup and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.
Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Subway Fresh Fit 600
Phoenix International Raceway, Avondale (Ariz.)
Saturday, April 10, 2010 - Race coverage begins at 4 p.m. PDT on Fox (5); race to start at 4:46 p.m. PDT.
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualifying
1. Jimmie Johnson 4/1 8th 6th 16th
Four wins in last five Phoenix starts and using same chassis that won last time out at Phoenix. Best team to adapt to day-night change during the race.
2. Denny Hamlin 15/1 1st 18th 26th
Looks like best car on the track; same one finished third in Phoenix last fall. Slim chance he may use Casey Mears as a backup driver due to recent knee surgery.
3. Tony Stewart 12/1 10th 10th 11th
The most consistent in average speeds throughout Friday practices. Using same chassis that finished second at Phoenix last spring.
4. Jeff Burton 12/1 13th 5th 15th
Two-time Phoenix winner; brought same chassis that finished second at Phoenix last fall.
5. Matt Kenseth 15/1 7th 31st 27th
Phoenix winner in 2002. Had a great early practice session before qualifying trim came on.
6. Clint Bowyer 15/1 6th 13th 25th
Phoenix-best of second place in 2008 spring race. Using rebuilt chassis that finished sixth in Atlanta last season.
7. Kyle Busch 10/1 12th 8th 17th
Won at Phoenix as rookie in 2005; no top-five finishes there since. Had one of his best practices of the 2010 season coming into a race.
8. Mark Martin 7/1 9th 11th 23rd
Two-time Phoenix winner; won this race last season and finished fourth in the fall. Brand new chassis this week.
9. Kurt Busch 8/1 4th 18th 19th
Won at Phoenix in 2005 and is on run of three straight top-six finishes there. Brought chassis that finished eighth at California last year.
10. Jeff Gordon 8/1 17th 1st 10th
Only Phoenix win came in 2007, hasn’t had a top-five finish there since. Got better as practice went on.
Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR betting lines in Las Vegas since 1995. He writes for various sports publications. He can be reached at MM.Roberts7@Gmail.com.
Odds and Ends at Phoenix International Raceway
Compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services
History
· Construction was completed in January 1964. The facility consisted of a one-mile oval and a 2.5-mile road course.
· Alan Kulwicki won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Phoenix on Nov. 6, 1988.
· The first spring race was held on April 23, 2005, and was also the first night race. It was won by Kurt Busch.
Notebook
· There have been 27 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Phoenix International Raceway, one per season from 1988-2004 and two each season since.
· Geoffrey Bodine won the first pole in 1988.
· There have been 17 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman with four.
· Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon are the only drivers to win consecutive poles. Newman won three straight (2002-04), while Gordon won the fall of 2006 and spring of 2007.
· There have been 19 different race winners, led by Jimmie Johnson with four. Johnson has won four of the last five Phoenix races. Mark Martin (spring 2009) won the other race in that span.
· The race has been won from the pole three times: Jeff Gordon (spring 2007), Jimmie Johnson (fall 2008) and Mark Martin (spring 2009).
· The race has been won from a top-10 starting position in 14 of 27 events.
· Denny Hamlin won his first career pole at Phoenix in November 2005.
· Ricky Rudd won the 1995 race from the 29th-place starting position, the furthest back a race winner has started.
· Mark Martin has 11 top-five finishes, more than any other driver. Martin (8.9 average finish) is one of three active drivers who average a top-10 finish. Jimmie Johnson (5.1) and Denny Hamlin (9.6) are the others.
· Five of the last seven races have ended with a margin of victory of under one second.
· Two perfect driver ratings of 150.0 have been recorded at Phoenix. Kurt Busch did it with his win in April 2005, and Kevin Harvick did it in November 2006.
NASCAR in Arizona
* There have been 32 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Arizona.
* 29 drivers in NASCAR national series history have their home state recorded as Arizona.
* There have been no race winners from Arizona in NASCAR’s three national series.
Phoenix International Raceway Data
Race: 7 of 36 (April 10, 2010)
Track Size: 1 mile
· Banking/1 and 2: 11 degrees
· Banking/3 and 4: 9 degrees
· Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
· Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
· Frontstretch: 1,179 feet
· Backstretch: 1,551 feet
Driver Rating at Phoenix
Jimmie Johnson 123.0
Kurt Busch 104.6
Mark Martin 103.8
Jeff Gordon 99.8
Greg Biffle 99.8
Denny Hamlin 98.8
Carl Edwards 98.8
Tony Stewart 97.8
Kevin Harvick 94.6
Kyle Busch 92.2
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-09 races (10 total) at Phoenix.
Qualifying/Race Data
2009 pole winner: Mark Martin (133.814 mph, 26.903 seconds)
2009 race winner: Mark Martin (108.042 mph, April 18, 2009)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (135.854 mph, 26.499 seconds, Nov. 5, 2004)
Track race record: Tony Stewart (118.132 mph, Nov. 7, 1999)
Pit Window: Approximately 70-78 laps, based on fuel mileage.
Odds to Win 2010 SUBWAY FRESH FIT 600
PHOENIX INT'L RACEWAY
SATURDAY, APRIL 10, 2010
JIMMIE JOHNSON 4
MARK MARTIN 7
JEFF GORDON 8
KYLE BUSCH 10
DENNY HAMLIN 15
JUAN MONTOYA 20
TONY STEWART 12
CARL EDWARDS 18
GREG BIFFLE 18
KURT BUSCH 8
KASEY KAHNE 30
CLINT BOWYER 15
KEVIN HARVICK 15
JEFF BURTON 12
BRIAN VICKERS 50
MATT KENSETH 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
JOEY LOGANO 30
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
JAMIE McMURRAY 50
DAVID RAGAN 75
BRAD KESELOWSKI 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
SAM HORNISH JR 300
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300
ELLIOTT SADLER 500
PAUL MENARD 500
BOBBY LABONTE 500
REGAN SMITH 1000
SCOTT SPEED 500
TRAVIS KVAPIL 1000
FIELD 200
Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book
