NFL BETTING: Chargers return to full power

Rallying behind quarterback Philip Rivers, the San Diego Chargers won their final four games last season to sneak into the playoffs. But at 8-8, the Chargers underachieved in the regular season.

Expect more than mediocrity this time around, said Sportsmemo.com handicapper Ted Sevransky, who is touting San Diego to go over its regular-season win total of 10.

“Last year, injuries, bad luck late in games and a general sense of sluggishness left the Chargers in a huge hole with a 4-8 record entering December,” Sevransky said. “This year, all the talk out of Chargers camp indicates we can expect a much more focused approach to start, and instead of losing on the road in the postseason, this team intends to win at home.”

According to NFL win totals posted at Las Vegas sports books, only two teams — New England and Pittsburgh — go into the season with higher expectations than the Chargers.

San Diego has won three consecutive AFC West titles, without a losing season since 2003, and Sevransky noted the Chargers’ 54-26 record in the regular season over the past five years.

Rivers, who had the league’s top passer rating (105.5) last year while throwing for 34 touchdowns, is a big reason for Sevransky’s optimism. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson also appears to be in better shape after rushing for a career-low 1,110 yards.

“Rivers stayed injury free and carried the offense during a season that Tomlinson and the running game underperformed,” Sevransky said. “A leader in the locker room as well as on the field, Rivers is just entering his prime and deserves to be mentioned among the league’s elite.

“San Diego is loaded with skill-position talent. All reports out of training camp indicate Tomlinson is as healthy as he’s been in years.”

Tomlinson’s backup, Darren Sproles, averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year. Sevransky said Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, Malcolm Floyd, Buster Davis and tight end Antonio Gates form “one of the NFL’s better receiving corps.”

The Chargers return four of five starters on the offensive line, including three Pro Bowl candidates: tackle Marcus McNeil, guard Kris Dielman and center Nick Hardwick. San Diego ranked second in the league in points scored last year and should remain near the top.

“The Chargers’ defense declined markedly in 2008, although the unit improved somewhat late in the season after Ted Cottrell was fired and Ron Rivera assumed the defensive coordinator duties,” Sevransky said. “Rivera has now had a full offseason to implement his scheme, a 3-4 defense that relies heavily on blitzing linebackers to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.”

With a healthy Shawne Merriman returning, expect the pass rush to improve. The defensive front is strong, and Sevransky said, “The secondary is loaded with talent as well.”

The AFC West is weak, and San Diego has gone 5-1 straight up against its division rivals in each of the past three years.

“The rest of the schedule isn’t easy, but it’s a long way from brutal. It’s surely worth noting that San Diego doesn’t play a single early start game in the Eastern time zone this year,” Sevransky said.

“Based on this year’s season over/under win totals, San Diego faces the second-easiest schedule in the league, just one more reason why we can expect the Chargers to go over their total of 10.”

Sevransky analyzes his play on the Miami Dolphins under 7:

Let’s look at some cold hard facts about NFL win totals. Since 2005, teams that went four or more games over their projected win total the previous year have come back down in a hurry — just 2-14-1 to the under against their win total the following season.

In addition, since 2004, playoff teams have returned to the postseason only 19 times in 48 tries the following year. When we take out the three regular-season “dynasties” of the past half-decade (New England, Indianapolis and San Diego), the rest of the league is 7-36 at making it back to the playoffs.

The Dolphins are the poster child for the one-year wonder concept in play with this under recommendation. After a 1-15 season in 2007, Miami improved by 10 wins last year. Chad Pennington finished second in the NFL in quarterback rating with a 97.4 mark, his best showing since 2002 (and only his second injury-free season in that time frame). Miami faced the second-easiest schedule in all of football, notching only one win against a playoff-bound opponent.

The Dolphins went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and their plus-17 turnover ratio ranked No. 1 in the NFL. This team got all the breaks, both with the schedule and during the games, making its 11-5 record a gross overstatement.

The betting marketplace understood fully — that’s why the Dolphins were 3-point home underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens in their ugly playoff loss and why bettors must search for 7 to bet the under here, with a mix of 7 and 7 available.

Expect the Dolphins to be underdogs in all eight of their road games this year. And with Indianapolis, New Orleans, New England and Pittsburgh all visiting Miami this fall, the Dolphins could easily match or exceed the three home losses they suffered last year..

Contact reporter Matt Youmans atmyoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.