Numbers point to Notre Dame upset of Boston College

Sophomore quarterback Jimmy Clausen is on the brink of leading Notre Dame to at least a minor bowl game this season. It might not seem like a lot, but it could be a major accomplishment.

The Fighting Irish, 5-3 with four games remaining, face a big hurdle Saturday at Boston College, which is a 31/2-point favorite.

Clausen resembled a crash-test dummy last season as he got sacked repeatedly and Notre Dame finished a miserable 3-9. The Irish's woes included a fifth consecutive loss to the Eagles.

Paramount Sports handicapper Lee Sterling said with Clausen showing improvement, Notre Dame has a good shot to stop its losing streak in the series.

"I expect the Irish to win this intense rivalry game outright," Sterling said. "Notre Dame has the better player at the most important position on the field, which is quarterback. Clausen has been on target the past five games with a stellar touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12 to 3."

Sterling is not as high on "struggling" Boston College quarterback Chris Crane, who is completing 56 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

"Both teams are off heartbreaking losses last week, when they either held the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime," Sterling said. "Why should you back a team like Notre Dame, which has lost five straight in this series and is off a four-overtime loss to Pittsburgh?

"The Irish own the higher-rated offense (No. 36-63), defense (No. 17-41) and special teams (No. 38-99)."

Sterling said Notre Dame is 8-0 against the spread as an underdog of 7 or fewer points, and he is expecting an exciting finish.

"As great as college football still is, I miss the rivalries like Notre Dame-Miami and the Catholics vs. Convicts headlines, buildup and intensity displayed by the participants and fans," Sterling said. "Notre Dame and Boston College share similar mythologies and usually play competitive games that seem to be decided by a great play or a field goal in the final moments."

Sterling (paramountsports. com) analyzes two more plays for Saturday (Home team in CAPS):

• FLORIDA STATE (-4) over Clemson: This used to be the "Bowden Bowl," but that's no more because Tommy Bowden was fired as Clemson's coach. Seminoles coach Bobby Bowden would like to lay the lumber to the school that let his son go. The home team is 10-2 against the spread in this series.

If the Tigers can't spring running backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller, they usually falter because they can't rely on sore-shouldered quarterback Cullen Harper, who threw three interceptions last week. Florida State's stout defense has allowed only three of eight opponents to reach the 100-yard mark in rushing.

• Arizona State (-14) over WASHINGTON: Being a winning bettor in college football requires you to be a bully bettor quite often, and Washington is in the final stages of its worst season since 1969. The Huskies are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS. They lost star quarterback Jake Locker to injury, and coach Tyrone Willingham was fired last week.

The road map to stop the Sun Devils is to put pressure on quarterback Rudy Carpenter, but Washington has produced only five sacks all season. Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson hasn't had a chance to run up the score since early September, and he won't hold anything back in this game.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.