Packers rising; Bears sinking

It's always interesting to observe the rise and fall of various NFL teams, and no team has been more of a positive surprise than the Green Bay Packers, who seem rejuvenated by 37-year-old quarterback Brett Favre.

As the Packers are rising, the Chicago Bears are falling out of playoff contention. The defending NFC champions are 1-3 and stuck in reverse with two underachieving quarterbacks.

Green Bay (4-0) has won eight straight games and is a 3-point home favorite over Chicago today. The betting public is supporting the Packers, though, moving the line to 31/2 at several sports books.

Vegas Insider handicapper Mark Franco is also backing the Packers.

"I look for Favre to get the job done against a Bears defense that is banged up and overmatched," Franco said. "The Bears have been making big mistakes that have cost them games."

Favre's play has been mostly without flaws. He has passed for eight touchdowns and been intercepted only twice, and he has done it without help from a running attack.

The Packers, who have passed on 68 percent of their offensive plays, average a league-worst 54.2 rushing yards per game.

Franco said he expects Favre to take advantage of a Chicago defense that is hurting and was missing four starters last week in a loss at Detroit. The Bears have been without cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher and linebacker Lance Briggs, among others.

Chicago finally demoted quarterback Rex Grossman and switched to veteran Brian Griese, who passed for two touchdowns against the Lions but also tossed three interceptions.

"Griese didn't provide much of an upgrade, and he will have a tougher time going against a Packers defense that is underrated," Franco said.

The Bears rank 27th in the league with 82.8 rushing yards per game, putting even more pressure on their two struggling quarterbacks.

The teams are at opposite ends of the point-spread standings as Green Bay is 4-0 and Chicago is 0-4.

Franco (vegasinsider.com) breaks down the rest of today's Week 5 schedule:

• Carolina at New Orleans (-3): These teams were supposed to be battling for the NFC South lead and not the cellar. Neither team has shown us much of anything, but this is a much better spot for the Saints coming off a bye week. The Panthers have owned the Saints in New Orleans lately, but they are again forced to rely on backup quarterback David Carr and a defense that is not playing well. It's hard to ignore that the road team is 12-1 against the spread in this series. This game is the Saints' season, though, and I look for their offense to click.

• Jacksonville (-21/2) at Kansas City: The Jaguars' David Garrard has been solid. Garrard has a 103.8 quarterback rating and a completion percentage of 77.3 on third downs. The real story for Jacksonville is its defense, which has surrendered only 34 points in the first three games. The Chiefs are strong as home underdogs, going 18-6 against the spread, and are coming off a big win at San Diego. But there is too much value with the Jaguars laying this small number. Jacksonville's defense should stuff running back Larry Johnson and Kansas City's weak offensive line.

• Detroit at Washington (-31/2): The Lions have been extremely productive offensively despite not protecting quarterback Jon Kitna. He was sacked six times by the Bears last week, increasing his season total to 18. Detroit is obviously improved, but its 56-21 blowout loss at Philadelphia two weeks ago raised some questions. The Redskins' defense should contain the Lions' passing game and put lots of pressure on Kitna.

• Atlanta at Tennessee (-8): Is this line right or overpriced for the Titans? Atlanta's offense has gotten on track behind Joey Harrington, who has passed for four touchdowns with no interceptions the past two weeks. The Falcons posted 46 points in their past two games after scoring 10 in their first two. Tennessee's second-ranked rush defense has been disruptive up front, but the secondary has holes and Harrington should have some success. You can't ignore Titans quarterback Vince Young's winning ways -- he is 10-6 straight up and 13-3 against the spread as a starter -- but Tennessee is laying too many points.

• Miami at Houston (-5): The Dolphins' defense has turned to Swiss cheese with old age and linebacker Zach Thomas out of the lineup the past two weeks. Miami, allowing a league-worst 199 rushing yards per game, allowed Oakland to rush for 299 yards last week. The Dolphins have lost seven straight, the NFL's longest skid. Their only bright spot has been running back Ronnie Brown with 559 yards from scrimmage (311 yards rushing, 248 receiving). The Texans have an array of injuries on offense, so look under the total (43).

• Seattle at Pittsburgh (-6): The Steelers have outscored opponents 111-47. Running back Willie Parker remains the key to their offense with 405 yards, but wide receiver Hines Ward will be out for the second straight week. This is Seattle's third road game in four weeks.

• Cleveland at New England (-161/2): We might be seeing the best team to ever start a season in the history of the NFL. The Patriots have won their first four games by a combined score of 148-48, putting up an average of 37 points per game while not allowing any opponent to score more than two touchdowns. This could be a letdown spot as the Patriots face a tough test at Dallas next week. The Browns have shown they can produce points, so I'll take this to go over the total (48).

• Arizona (-31/2) at St. Louis: The injury-riddled Rams are a mess and have shown me nothing. They will turn to backup quarterback Gus Frerotte to try to get the offense moving. The Cardinals' offense has played well for the most part, averaging 21 points and 339 yards per game. Second-year quarterback Matt Leinart has started all four games this season, but Kurt Warner has come off the bench to lead a no-huddle formation the last two weeks.

• New York Jets at New York Giants (-31/2): At the beginning of the season, the Jets had the "Mangenius" and the Giants had coach Tom Coughlin with one foot out the door. Now Jets coach Eric Mangini has a team ready to implode and the Giants might be on their way to making a run in the NFC. Buffalo rookie Trent Edwards lit up the Jets' defense last week, so I look for Eli Manning to have one of his best games. Take the Giants.

• Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (-10): The Buccaneers have allowed only 44 points in four games. The problem is, they go against the No. 3 scoring offense in the league in the Colts, averaging 32.8 points per game. Opposing teams have seen a lot of running back Joseph Addai, who ranks third in the league with 407 rushing yards. But Addai is listed as questionable on the injury report. Tampa Bay is riding a three-game straight-up and against-the-spread winning streak since a Week 1 loss. There are several injuries on both sides, so look for this to dip under the total (451/2).

• San Diego at Denver (Pick): The Broncos just aren't good defensively, and quarterback Jay Cutler hasn't developed into a quality NFL starter yet. The Chargers, meanwhile, have no wide receivers, no defensive backs and a coach who can't get his team to play at a high level. Every trend points to the Broncos, but look for San Diego to get LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game back on track.

• Baltimore (-31/2) at San Francisco: The Ravens are overrated, and the 49ers have no offense. Baltimore has yet to cover a game this season and has been outscored 90-79. Veteran quarterback Steve McNair has struggled, leading the offense to just three touchdowns in 10 trips in the red zone. Trent Dilfer gets the start at quarterback for San Francisco, which has been held to less than 200 yards in three of four games. The only way to look is under the total (351/2).

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.