Panthers primed for rebound

Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers turned in one of the worst Week 1 performances in the NFL last Sunday. There was nothing good about it, and a lot of bad and ugly.

The Panthers got dominated in all phases of the game in a 38-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you've watched ESPN at all this past week, you heard how Delhomme has 11 turnovers in his last two starts, including the home playoff loss to Arizona in January. Television commentators say he's lost it. Carolina fans, the ones who have cheered him taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl and putting up Pro Bowl numbers, say he's washed up. Fantasy football experts say he should be benched.

The Panthers are 6-point road underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons today, and no one in their right mind would back Delhomme and this ugly 'dog, right?

That's exactly the type of thing Dave Tuley, owner of ViewFromVegas.com, loves to hear. The Panthers are Tuley's top play today.

"This is a great example in an over-adjustment in the line based on one game and the public's perception of it," Tuley said. "The Las Vegas Hilton put out lines 12 days in advance, and the line they made on this game was Falcons minus-3. The Falcons were solid but unspectacular in their 19-7 home win over the Dolphins last week, so this movement is solely because of the Panthers' poor performance.

"These teams are pretty equal overall. They both had regular-season win totals of 81/2, and the early line of Falcons minus-3 tells me (the Dolphins) were seen as equal with the Falcons just getting the 3 points for home-field advantage."

But Tuley said playing on the road does not faze Delhomme, who is 20-9-1 against the spread as a road underdog in his career.

"Even though the NFL stands for the No Form League, that's not how the vast majority of people bet. They have knee-jerk reactions to how teams perform on a given Sunday, and that's where we find value," Tuley said. "I would be taking the Panthers in this spot even if the line was 3, so the added points are a bonus. Be sure to shop around to get the best price possible. Over the course of the season you're going to win a few extra bets."

A contrarian handicapping style led Tuley, who wants to be known as a journalist first and a handicapper second, to have a solid secondary income last season. He hit more than 60 percent of his documented plays as he won the Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge (no monetary prize came with that), finished tied for second in the Leroy's Pro Challenge to collect $9,900, tied for 14th in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest for $5,500 and won the Leroy's Three N Out for another $3,700.

Tuley went 3-2 in the first week of the Hilton SuperContest. His other plays this week are St. Louis (another ugly contrarian play), Arizona, Seattle and Miami.

Tuley's breakdown of the rest of today's Week 2 schedule:

• Oakland at Kansas City (-3): Both teams hung around as double-digit underdogs before losing in Week 1. The Raiders played better defense -- against a better San Diego offense -- and are a small play for me. This was a popular pick in the Hilton SuperContest, so expect the line to drop or at least require bettors who take the plus-3 to lay minus-120.

• Houston at Tennessee (-7): The Texans are another team, like the Panthers, that had a disappointing start with their 24-7 loss to the Jets. But I'm looking to back them while others are jumping off the bandwagon. This would have been a SuperContest play for me if it was plus-7 on the card, but it was 61/2, but now that it's up to 7, I'm on board as the Texans' offense should score enough to keep this close.

• New England (-31/2) at New York Jets: More than 95 percent of my football bets are on underdogs -- and most who have followed me would call that a low estimate, and they're probably right as I think only two or three of my 85 SuperContest plays were on favorites last year -- but I'm going to bet the Patriots here at the lowest number I can get. This advance line was Patriots minus-7, and even though I was on the Jets last week, I'm not sure Mark Sanchez will have the same success against New England's veteran defense and Bill Belichick's schemes.

• Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9): I like the Bengals plus the points. The Bengals were being touted as a dark-horse team, but now after a bad game versus the Broncos, they're getting more than a touchdown. This should be a low-scoring game. I'll go under the total of 42 and take the Bengals.

• Minnesota (-91/2) at Detroit: I love double-digit dogs in the NFL. They started 17-1 against the spread last year and were a big part of me getting off to a strong start and finishing high in those contests. But one of my best calls last week was not taking the Lions plus-13 at New Orleans, and I'm not taking them here, either. Playing double-digit dogs in the NFL on the blind can be profitable, but you can do even better when being selective.

• New Orleans at Philadelphia (Pick): I'm passing on this. There has just been too much uncertainty with whether Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb would play or not. I think it's a tossup. Gun to my head, I would take the Eagles because of their defense.

• St. Louis at Washington (-10): I did take the Rams, but it's more of a bet against the Redskins. They shouldn't be this big a favorite against anyone. I had the Rams last year when they were plus-13 and beat the Redskins outright at FedEx Field. Even if they don't upset them again, they should stay within this inflated number.

• Arizona at Jacksonville (-3): The Cardinals are the play. Despite playing poorly last week, they still almost beat the 49ers. Despite all the talk about the jinx on Super Bowl losers, I think they bounce back here. All the talk about them not being able to win on the East Coast was squashed last year in the playoff win at Carolina.

• Seattle at San Francisco (-1): The wrong team is favored, in my humble opinion. The Seahawks could be this year's Cardinals with a high-powered offense -- quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has his best crew of receivers -- and a defense that is healthier.

• Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-41/2): The Bills came up short versus the Patriots, and they're the only side to play here. The Bucs don't have an identity on either side of the ball.

• Cleveland at Denver (-3): Another ugly matchup here. The spread seems about right. I'll look under the total (39). These teams might need two or three fluke Brandon Stokely-like touchdowns to reach that total.

• Baltimore at San Diego (-3): This could be the game of the day. I'll go with the underdog Ravens. They've opened up the offense this year, which makes them much more dangerous, and also more of an over team. Darren Sproles is a great change-of-pace back for the Chargers, but I'm not sure he'll hold up against a physical Baltimore defense. The better play is probably the Ravens plus-130 or more on the money line.

• Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago: It's a must-win game for the Bears in the second game of the Jay Cutler era, but losing Brian Urlacher hurts. With Troy Polamalu out for the Steelers, I'm surprised this total is so low as both offenses should open it up. I'll go over 371/2.

• New York Giants at Dallas (-3): It's a big night in Big D with the opening of the new stadium -- didn't it open in the preseason or with Brigham Young's upset of Oklahoma? Anyway, the Giants just might spoil the festivities with the stronger defense. Again, the money line of plus-130 or more seems the way to go.

Compiled by Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter Matt Youmans.