Saints are road threat with Brees airing it out

As case studies go, the New Orleans Saints and hot-handed quarterback Drew Brees will make an intriguing one this week. He's going to be used as sort of a laboratory rat in this experiment.

Over the past year, while Tom Brady has stayed busy rehabilitating a knee injury and delivering flowers to his supermodel wife, Brees probably has been the NFL's best passer.

Ben Roethlisberger has been the biggest winner, Jay Cutler has done the most whining, Peyton Manning has done his normal superb things, and Philip Rivers has posted impressive ratings.

Brees has threatened to break records. But he needs to win more, especially on the road, and he needs to close out games. So let's see what he does now.

The Saints are on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. New Orleans is a 1-point underdog at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, and the line has fluctuated the past few days.

It's a fascinating matchup for one reason: It's a quarterback-driven league, and quarterbacks are the most important players to bettors, and Brees has a huge advantage on paper.

If Donovan McNabb is unable to play for the Eagles because of a fractured rib, Kevin Kolb would make his first NFL start. Brees should beat Kolb, no question, and he should beat a fragile McNabb, too.

Philadelphia obviously has the stronger defense, but Brees will have opportunities to win the game. His performance will be the deciding factor, and he has to make the clutch plays.

Brees torched the Detroit Lions for 358 yards passing and six touchdowns in Week 1. He distributed the ball to eight receivers and got plenty of help from his running backs. The Saints' offense has appeared unstoppable for most of the past year.

But the Lions are a junior high squad compared to the Eagles, and this should be a real test to see if a green quarterback and a great defense can rat-trap Brees and the league's most impressive offense.

I suspect New Orleans, which is improved on the defensive side, is headed for a 10-win season, and Philadelphia is somewhat overrated.

The Saints lost six games by five points or fewer last year. Are they the same old Saints, losers of close games? I'll bet on Brees in this case. If he fails, it's my mistake and an easy one to make.

Four more plays for Week 2 (Home team in CAPS):

• Panthers (+6) over FALCONS: The pressure is on Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has fallen apart with 11 turnovers in his past two games. He desperately needs a big game, and strange things happen in the NFL every week. The Panthers have won three of their past four at the Georgia Dome, and they did win the NFC South with a 12-4 record last season.

• 49ERS (-11/2) over Seahawks: Seattle should win the NFC West if Matt Hasselbeck stays healthy. But the momentum is with 49ers coach Mike Singletary, who is 6-2-1 against the spread in his past nine games. Singletary's team will be disciplined and tough to beat. The Seahawks usually are softer on the road.

• Ravens (+3) over CHARGERS: In a shaky performance Monday at Oakland, the Chargers got beat up and exposed on defense. Philip Rivers bailed them out. Baltimore has the better defense and bolder coach, and quarterback Joe Flacco is thriving in a more aggressive offense. Flacco, 14-6 against the spread, is no fluke. Home teams are 2-7 ATS the past two seasons coming off a Monday road victory.

• BEARS (+3) over Steelers: Look for Cutler to recover from his four-interception debacle against Green Bay. The Bears will use running back Matt Forte and the short passing game more. Pittsburgh relies too much on Roethlisberger with no running attack, and injured safety Troy Polamalu will be missed.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.