Even without Roethlisberger, Steelers merit underdog bet

If efficiency consulting experts were called in to study the inner workings of the Pittsburgh Steelers, they undoubtedly would find Ben Roethlisberger to be one of the franchise's most valuable employees, if not the most valuable.

He's the only one who can shed multiple defensive linemen and linebackers, scramble as if he's running from a street gang and fire a touchdown pass into double coverage. He's a unique talent at quarterback.

With him, the Steelers are Super Bowl contenders. Without him, they are home underdogs to a team that ranks 15th in the NFL in total offense and 28th in total defense. That opponent is the Baltimore Ravens.

Few people are irreplaceable in the workplace. Roethlisberger is one of the few in his league. Exactly how valuable he is could be determined Sunday night, when Pittsburgh, without Roethlisberger, hosts Baltimore in an AFC North street fight.

Byron Leftwich, making his first start since 2009, will attempt to replace Roethlisberger, who is sidelined with a sprained right shoulder and serious rib injury.

The Steelers opened as 4-point favorites before Roethlisberger was knocked out Monday. The Ravens are now 3½-point favorites, meaning bettors and oddsmakers devalue Pittsburgh by 7½ points with Leftwich in place of "Big Ben." And that could be an accurate number, in the big picture. But in a small sample, for this one divisional game, I think it's too much of an adjustment.

Six of the past eight regular-season meetings between these rivals were decided by exactly three points, and a defense that ranks No. 1 overall and against the pass should control Joe Flacco and Ray Rice and keep the Steelers close in this one, too.

Pittsburgh's defense has found ways to compensate for the loss of safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his sixth straight game with a calf injury. The Ravens defense, getting gashed on the ground, misses linebacker Ray Lewis.

The best news for Leftwich is he has the help he needs. Running backs Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are healthy and ready to rumble.

The Steelers still have enough strengths to make up for Leftwich's weaknesses, so I'll take the 3½, as series history indicates the hook could prove valuable.

Four more plays for Week 11 (Home team in CAPS):

■ Eagles (+3½) over REDSKINS: Injured quarterbacks are a theme this week. Michael Vick will be replaced by rookie Nick Foles, but Philadelphia's 1-7-1 record against the spread shows Vick is not irreplaceable. The Eagles have won and covered their past three at Washington, which is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 home games. Those are solid trends. Vick's absence might force the Eagles coaches to take an intelligent approach, for a change, and rely more on running back LeSean McCoy.

■ RAMS (-3) over Jets: St. Louis is a different team under coach Jeff Fisher, who is 3-1 straight up and ATS at home. The loss was to Green Bay. Mark Sanchez is not Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets are not the Packers. This is a bet against the Jets.

■ Chargers (+8) over BRONCOS: Roethlisberger is not this season's Most Valuable Player only because of Peyton Manning, who has 21 touchdown passes and has led the Broncos to four consecutive wins and covers. So why take the risk with San Diego? Because the Chargers have won their past three at Denver, and Philip Rivers is overdue for a good day.

■ 49ERS (-4½) over Bears: Expect to see Alex Smith at quarterback for San Francisco, which has a quality backup plan in Colin Kaepernick. Jay Cutler is out for the Bears with a concussion, and Chicago has a shaky backup in Jason Campbell. The 49ers were 10-1-1 ATS at home under coach Jim Harbaugh before dropping the past three, and they are too good to continue the slump.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 33-17

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.