Writing off Sooners a mistake
Bad luck strikes some teams, and the Oklahoma Sooners certainly have endured more than their quota of early-season misfortune. The shoulder injury to Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Sam Bradford in the season-opening loss to Brigham Young is as bad as it gets.
A season-ending injury to tight end Jermaine Gresham and a smorgasbord of other mishaps also dot Oklahoma's resume.
Most pundits and experts have dismissed the Sooners from the national title chase, and perhaps with good reason.
However, that does not mean sports bettors should necessarily shy away from backing Oklahoma, and this week marks a favorable spot to hitch onto the Sooners' wagon against an overmatched opponent at a lower-than-expected point spread.
Tulsa, a member of Conference USA, has looked impressive in making easy work of Tulane and New Mexico in convincing wins.
However, Oklahoma, with or without Bradford, bears little resemblance to Tulsa's opening two opponents, which both deserve spots among the bottom 20 of college football's 120-team pecking order.
In the past four meetings between the Sooner State rivals -- two on each team's home turf -- played this decade, Oklahoma has averaged being a 33-point favorite over Tulsa.
And although replacing Bradford with a cherry-faced redshirt freshman, Landry Jones, Oklahoma is simply too fast and physical for an overmatched Tulsa team that certainly has garnered the Sooners' full attention this week.
Oklahoma is 13-4 against the spread the past three years as a home favorite and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite (regardless of site) since the start of the 2006 season.
Tulsa, meanwhile, covered its opening two games and is playing its third road game in as many weeks. The Golden Hurricane are just 5-13 ATS versus Bowl Championship Series schools since 1998.
Lay the 17 points and back the Sooners, still one of college football's best teams.
Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
• Navy (+8) over PITTSBURGH: The Panthers' 27-point victory at Buffalo last week was misleading as they enjoyed a plus-4 advantage in turnovers and were outgained by more than 100 yards.
Navy, a strong road underdog, again is undervalued at the betting window, featuring gutsy quarterback Ricky Dobbs.
• VIRGINIA TECH (-41/2) over Nebraska: After season-opening wins over Sun Belt members Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State, the Cornhuskers step way up in class and take to the road for the first time this season.
Virginia Tech is 25-11 ATS versus ranked teams since 2000, including a 9-2 showing as a home favorite against such opponents.
• MARSHALL (+3) over Bowling Green: Bowling Green almost upset Missouri last week on the road, and Marshall was humiliated at Virginia Tech.
The Thundering Herd, however, are 8-2 as home underdogs, plus the Falcons are in a difficult Missouri-Boise State sandwich and might not bring their full measure of energy to Huntington.
• TEXAS (-171/2) over Texas Tech: The Longhorns have grown tired of watching the never-ending replays of Michael Crabtree's game-winning catch that cost them a shot at the national championship last season.
On top of that, Mack Brown has owned Mike Leach in Austin, having won the past five meetings there by an average of 28 points, with only one of those victories by fewer than 16 points.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Season: 2-8
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone of Vegassportsauthority.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal this season.
