Cook Report: Reid ‘most vulnerable incumbent’ but Angle generates ‘controversy’

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid is deeply unpopular. His conservative Republican challenger, Sharron Angle, is widely controversial.

And that dueling dynamic is at the heart of why the Senate race in Nevada remains a tossup, says a new Cook Political report out Thursday.

The report says the GOP is "poised to pick up 7 to 9 seats" in the Senate on Nov. 2, which would put Republicans just one seat shy of regaining control of the body that Reid now leads. (This tracks with other Labor Day-pitched predictions, with most saying political winds favor Republicans and are blowing against Democrats this election year. Most analysts are predicting a Republican takeover of the House as an anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic wave sweeps the country, thanks mostly to the dismal economy.)

In the new Cook Political Report, senior editor Jennifer Duffy puts Nevada's Senate race in the tossup category along with six other close contests for Democratic-held seats in California, Colorado, Washington state, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania.

Here's Duffy's take on why Reid and Angle are locked in perhaps the highest-profile and highest-stakes race in the country:

"Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid is undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent of either party seeking re-election this year. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are 42 percent to 52 percent, according to Pollster.com. Still, Reid has two factors working in his favor. The first is his opponent, former (Reno Assemblywoman) Sharron Angle, a Tea Party-backed candidate, who seems to generate controversy at every turn. Reid’s campaign has pummeled Angle in television ads on her positions on Social Security, job creation, education, and taxes. Angle, in turn, has worked to portray Reid’s leadership as detrimental to the state’s economy, pointing to Nevada’s high unemployment and home foreclosure rates. Given the beating Angle has taken on the air, it’s amazing that Reid’s advantage in the race is just three points, 47 percent to 44 percent, according to the Pollster.com trend line.

"The second thing working in Reid’s favor is that Nevada voters have the option of voting for “None of the Above” on the ballot. It would seem that one strategy is to make Angle so unacceptable that she begins to divide the anti-Reid vote with “None of the Above,” which would essentially allow Reid to slip through and win the race with a plurality of the vote. This race is already ugly and seems destined to become more so."

For another take on why Reid may have a tough time putting away the race despite Angle's perceived flaws, read this piece by former Las Vegas journalist J. Patrick Collican in The Nation.