DC BLOG: Internal poll shows Berkley up in Senate race

Rep. Shelley Berkley holds a slight lead over Sen. Dean Heller in a 2012 Nevada Senate race matchup, according to an internal poll taken by Democrats and made public in part on Wednesday.

The 5-point edge for Berkley in the survey indicates that Republican Heller has not gotten a bounce from being appointed to the Senate in May to replace Sen. John Ensign, according to a memo by the Mellman Group that did the poll.

Berkley's edge was 42 percent to 37 percent for Heller in the survey of 600 likely voters that was taken June 11-14. The margin of error was plus/minus 4 percentage points.

Berkley support increased by a point over a Democratic poll taken in March.

"While that 1-point increase in Berkley's margin is not statistically significant, it does provide clear evidence that becoming a senator has not yet helped Dean Heller as some predicted it would," the poll memo said.

It said voters' view of Heller has diminished since Democrats began attacking his votes this year in favor of sweeping changes in Medicare that Dems say would end the program "as we know it."

Heller's favorability numbers went from 36 percent to 34 percent between March and June, while his unfavorables climbed from 15 percent to 22 percent.

In keeping with party strategy to focus on Heller and the general election in November 2012, the poll info that was released did not offer how Berkley matches against primary opponent Byron Georgiou, the millionaire Las Vegas finance attorney.

Republicans sought to emphasize that point in reaction to the numbers.

“We’re glad Shelley Berkley and her liberal allies in Washington are patting themselves on the back and trying to convince folks that she’s the Democratic nominee," said Jahan Wilcox, a GOP spokesman. "Of course, it's interesting that they did not release any primary polling numbers against her current self-funding opponent."

Mark Peplowski, a political science professor at the College of Southern Nevada, said while it is still 17 months before Election Day, the poll from what was released "should worry" Heller.

"When his unfavorables have gone up 50 percent that is not a good sign for a man who had a strong statewide position. It shows the hits have been working," Peplowski said.

Heller "has to raise his public profile in Nevada," Peplowski said. "He has to do something, and it can't just be parades. It has to be some policy or legislative bone to hang out there."

For Berkley, "considering that five months ago she and Heller were considered to be neck and neck for what arguably was an open seat, she has to feel good about two polls showing her up by the tolerated error."

Still, much is not being revealed, Peplowski said, including a breakdown of how each candidate is faring outside home territory, which for Berkley is Las Vegas and for Heller is Northern Nevada and the rural counties.

"The most important crosstabs are partisan ones, whether there is any crossover, and the north and south ones," he said. "I would like to see what Berkley's numbers are outside Clark County. Heller could be winning by 30 points in the rurals and losing by 8 in Clark County."