Full ballot poll has Reid up by two; pollster says surveys underestimating the incumbent

In a full ballot poll that includes six minor candidates and "none of the above," the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling has Sen. Harry Reid leading challenger Sharron Angle by a two-point margin.

The survey released this afternoon by the Democrat-affiliated firm showed Reid leading Angle 47-45. The other ballot options combined for 7 percent support.

The poll was conducted last Thursday through Saturday of 504 likely Nevada voters and had a margin of error or plus or minus 4.4 percent.

A survey released earlier today by Fox News had Angle up by 49-47 percent. That poll, like a number of others that have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race, have not listed all the minor party candidates. Still, recent polling that has indicated the Republican with a lead has affected the perception of the race.

In a bit of serendipity, Public Policy Polling threw Republican Danny Tarkanian into the mix of its latest Nevada survey.

Tarkanian lost in the GOP primary but when voters were asked last week who they preferred between Tarkanian and Reid, the Republican prevailed, 49-43.

The poll was released a day after the firm’s polling director Tom Jensen wrote that surveys may be underestimating Reid’s ballot strength.

"Usually the conventional wisdom is that a tie race means the incumbent will lose but in the case of Nevada there are a couple big reasons why the tie might go to Harry Reid," it said.

Jensen lays out his reasoning here.

"I certainly think Angle can win by a small amount but if you asked me who has the better chance of winning this by 5 or 6 points I definitely think it’s Reid," Jensen said.

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