Rory Reid’s teacher layoff figure doubted

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid's accusation that his Republican opponent Brian Sandoval wants to fire more than 5,000 teachers is getting a lot of statewide airplay -- but it's also generating doubts about the figure and criticism for stretching the truth.

The accusation has been included in a number of ads attacking Sandoval's plan for Nevada's k-12 education system. The ads claim that if Sandoval wins the election he will balance the state budget in part by laying off about 20 percent of Nevada's teachers.

Sandoval has said in the past that Reid's analysis is flawed because the teachers would likely come to the table for more negotiations rather than force budget cuts to be done by laying off employees. Teachers in Clark and Washoe counties have already made pay concessions in response to earlier budget cuts.

"His claims about Sandoval laying off teachers, it is so highly speculative that I think it undercuts Reid's credibility," said Eric Herzik, a professor of political science at University of Nevada, Reno. "He is at the margin of making a really unsubstantiated claim."

Reid translated Sandoval's proposal to reduce the salaries of teachers and other state employees into layoffs, a logical leap he says is justified because as governor Sandoval wouldn't have authority to reduce teacher salaries. That would require teacher unions agreeing to renegotiate contracts.

The presumption, then, is that teachers unions wouldn’t agree to such a plan and Sandoval, if he were to achieve the savings he says he wants, would be forced to fire teachers.

In ads Reid refers viewers to a Web site his campaign built that details the math behind the extrapolations, but in about 30 paragraphs plus bullet points there is only one partial sentence acknowledging layoff figures are based on an assumption teachers unions wouldn’t agree to concessions.

But it is too early to know whether teachers would call Sandoval’s bluff because they haven’t yet begun to negotiate contracts that would be affected by the 2011 budget.

And there are teachers unions in all 17 counties that negotiate contracts independently.

When the legislature cut education funds during the special session earlier this year, some districts had layoffs while others, like those in Clark and Washoe counties, agreed to compensation concessions to preserve jobs.

“They dealt with the cuts coming out of the special session all differently,” said Lynn Warne, president of the Nevada State Education Association.

The NSEA has endorsed Reid over Sandoval and Warne said Sandoval’s proposal would likely result in some teacher layoffs, but wouldn’t say it would mean more than 5,000 teacher layoffs.

“I couldn't answer that because there are 17 different counties and 17 different affiliates,” she said. “I guess we'll just have to see what does come out of the next legislative session, each district will bargain the impact of those cuts.”

Ken Fernandez, a professor of political science at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said the specter of teachers being fired is good fodder for political ads because parents and voters nationwide are fearful of education cuts.

“I think maybe Rory Reid is playing on those fears,” he said.

Ronni Council, a Democratic strategists, says Reid’s conclusion is fair game so long as there is a genuine extrapolation to be made from the proposed cuts to a number of layoffs.

“It is just political language,” she said. “If his plan does call for something that will end up in 5,000 teachers not having jobs it is ok to say.”

In an interview Wednesday Reid stood behind the reasoning behind the suggestion Sandoval would lay off teachers, but hedged on the 5,000-plus figure.

“It makes absolutely no sense to add educators to the unemployment lines, and that is what his proposal would do,” Reid said.

Reid added Sandoval would lay off “scores of educators”. When pressed that scores is fewer than 5,000, Reid said “thousands of teachers.”

Reid isn’t the only candidate in the gubernatorial race making claims about his opponent based on assumptions that can’t yet be proven.

Sandoval has said Reid will raise taxes, even though both candidates have said they don’t intend to do so.

Sandoval has said the claim is justified because Reid hasn’t identified anyplace he would cut the budget to close what is expected to be a shortfall of around $3 billion for the 2011-13 biennium.

Reid hasn’t yet proposed a budget plan, but he hasn’t called for a tax increase either.