NFL Week 1 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game
NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com
Raiders at Patriots
* Time: 10 a.m., CBS
* Line/total: Patriots -2½, 44
* Analysis: The Raiders’ visit to Foxborough, Massachusetts, for the season opener will provide new coach Pete Carroll another opportunity to settle old scores against the team that delivered the most emotionally shattering defeat a coach could experience in the 2015 Super Bowl. Bill Belichick disciple Mike Vrabel has taken the reins for the Patriots, and last year’s dismal 3-14 Titans’ performance showed just how good of a coach Vrabel was for them through 2023. The Patriots are itching to resurrect a dynasty — and so are the Raiders. But has Pete really had enough time and reps to turn this legendary Silver and Black franchise around straight out of the box?
* Pick: Patriots 21, Raiders 20
Buccaneers at Falcons
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Bucs -1, 47
* Analysis: Although the Falcons have won four of the past five in this rivalry, including a sweep last season, the Bucs have added a flashy new piece in rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, their first-round draft choice who helped lead Ohio State to the national championship last season. Tampa Bay already had the third-highest rated offense in the league last season, averaging 393.2 yards per game. But the Falcons were no slouch at No. 6 (369.8 ypg). This game could come down to which defense holds up better and/or secures that key takeaway in the second half. Tampa clearly has the defensive edge as the league’s third-ranked rushing defense last season. The Falcons’ supremely productive running back Bijan Robinson will certainly put the Bucs’ highly touted run defense to the test.
* Pick: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 23
Bengals at Browns
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Bengals -5, 48
* Analysis: Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow takes the league’s top-rated passing offense to Cleveland to face a Myles Garrett-led defense. Garrett, the 2023 NFL defensive player of the year, has more sacks against Burrow than any other quarterback. The Bengals have come out flat in their last three season openers and lost them all. Browns quarterback Joe Flacco is still capable of heroics at age 40 but Father Time joins the mediocre Bengals defense as the 12th man on the field.
* Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Dolphins at Colts
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Pick, 46
* Analysis: The Dolphins take their stout sixth-ranked defense (314.4 ypg) from last season into the opener against the Colts, who have shockingly named Daniel Jones their starting quarterback over the promising Anthony Richardson. Yes, the same Daniel Jones who couldn’t cut it with the Giants. Maybe it takes a stunning move like that to take the pressure off of Indianapolis’ bottom-four defense (361.2 ypg) and allow its solid rushing game to shine. I believe the Colts’ 11-game losing streak in season openers ends Sunday. Do you?
* Pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 23
Cardinals at Saints
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Cardinals -6½, 43
* Analysis: New Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley will have his hands full trying to turn around a bottom-three defense in all major categories last season while facing Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. The dual-threat Murray helped Arizona produce the seventh-best run offense (144.2 ypg) in the league last season. The Saints, led by veterans in running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Brandin Cooks, will need to maintain ball control to keep the Cardinals offense at bay. Failure to do so could rattle New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler.
* Pick: Cardinals 27, Saints 17
Steelers at Jets
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Steelers -2½, 38
* Analysis: What happens when you swap a young, promising but struggling quarterback with a team in your conference, for a 41-year-old veteran whose career has sputtered the past couple years, and they face each other opening day? The Steelers are about to find out, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers will start his first game in Black and Gold, while the young man, Jets quarterback Justin Fields, will try to nail down a job with his third organization in as many years. If you enjoy watching dramatic storylines that could easily turn into a train wreck, then this game is for you.
* Pick: Steelers 21, Jets 17
Giants at Commanders
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Commanders-6, 46
* Analysis: The key matchup in this game will be the Washington rushing attack, ranked fourth last season (149.1 ypg) and led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, against New York’s lowly 26th-ranked run defense (136.2 ypg). Is it possible the Giants’ draft-buttressed linebacker corps could make a dent in the Commanders’ roadster driven by Daniels? Probably not enough to change the outcome, but well worth watching.
* Pick: Commanders 24, Giants 20
Panthers at Jaguars
* Time: 10 a.m.
* Line/total: Jaguars -3½, 47
* Analysis: Both teams finished in the bottom eight in overall offensive and defensive categories last season, but there is reason for hope. They each have budding young talent, with Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard coming off a career year with 1,195 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns, and Jaguars rookie receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter bidding to become the first two-way star since Pro Football Hall of Famer Deion Sanders. He who makes the most big plays wins.
* Pick: Jaguars 24, Panthers 21
Titans at Broncos
* Time: 1:05 pm
* Line/total: Broncos -8½, 42
* Analysis: Quarterback Cam Ward, the No. 1 draft pick from the Miami Hurricanes, will be making his debut for the Titans. He will face Denver and its second-year quarterback Bo Nix, who excelled in his rookie year, throwing 29 touchdown passes to catapult the Broncos into the playoffs. If Ward can do the same with Tennessee, offensive rookie of the year honors should be a cinch. Speaking of cinch, I like the Broncos to win this game.
* Pick: Broncos 24, Titans 20
49ers at Seahawks
* Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox
* Line/total: 49ers -1, 43
* Analysis: Quarterback Sam Darnold will make his first start for the Seahawks after signing a $100.5 million, three-year deal. The Seahawks already had a top-six passing offense (236.5 ypg) without him last season. Breaking him in versus the 49ers may just be what the doctor ordered. But San Francisco has been so good in Seattle lately, winning the last three meetings there, that prudence says the Niners will find a way to win.
* Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 20
Lions at Packers
* Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS
* Line/total: Packers -2, 47
* Analysis: The Lions’ three-game win streak at Lambeau Field is in serious jeopardy of ending as Detroit faces the extreme challenge of overcoming the loss of its offensive and defensive coordinators. The Lions looked disjointed in the preseason as a result and we’re skeptical whether they can recapture the flow that carried them to deep playoff runs the past two seasons. The morale boost of the Packers acquiring star edge rusher Micah Parsons, who is questionable for the game with a back injury, should shift the Green Bay defense into high gear against a Lions offense that may need more time to jell under new offensive coordinator John Morton.
* Pick: Packers 27, Lions 17
Texans at Rams
* Time: 1:25 pm
* Line/total: Rams -3, 43
* Analysis: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is only 191 passing yards shy of becoming the 10th NFL quarterback in the 60,000-yard club. Wide receiver Davante Adams, who the Rams signed this offseason, should help Stafford accomplish this monumental task. Stafford, 37, dealt with a back injury in training camp but has been cleared to play in the opener. If he reaches 60,000 career yards passing Sunday, he will have reached the milestone in the second-fewest games (223) behind Drew Brees (215). Look for Rams running back Kyren Williams to get in the act as well, as he’s led the NFL in scores from scrimmage the last two seasons with 35 touchdowns.
* Pick: Rams 24, Texans 20
Ravens at Bills
* Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
* Line/total: Ravens -1, 51
* Analysis: Last season’s playoff matchup between these two AFC stalwarts was decided by a dropped pass, slipping through the hands of Ravens veteran tight end Mark Andrews in Baltimore’s 27-25 loss. The bitter taste left in the mouths of the Ravens, the perennial league leaders in offensive and defensive categories, should spur them on to victory in this tight duel. Baltimore running back Derrick Henry has had huge success against the Bills recently, including 199 yards rushing and two touchdowns in last season’s 35-10 rout of Buffalo in Week 4. Unless he is contained, the Bills’ chances of winning shrink dramatically.
* Pick: Ravens 27, Bills 24
Vikings at Bears
* Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
* Line/total: Vikings -1½, 44
* Analysis: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, the NFL’s resident quarterback whisperer, is ready to mentor Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy to getting out fast in his first career start. The Michigan product missed his rookie year with a knee injury. O’Connell is fortuitously able to execute this task against the Bears, who went 5-12 last season and found it difficult to win close games and muster clutch performances. That might change under new coach Ben Johnson, the former Lions offensive coordinator who will mentor quarterback Caleb Williams. The Vikings are set to build on last season’s dazzling 14-3 regular-season record, but quite possibly in a nail-biter.
* Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 20
