College football betting trends: Edges for playoff, bowl games

Bruce Marshall is a handicapper for CBS Sportsline. He provides the Las Vegas Review-Journal with college football notes and trends for College Football Playoff and bowl games.

Thursday

Oregon (-2½, 51½) vs. Texas Tech, Orange Bowl, CFP: Oregon has failed to cover in four of its past five bowl/playoff games after letting James Madison in the back door Dec. 20 in their CFP first-round game. The Ducks went 8-5 against the spread this season and are on an extended 25-15-1 ATS run. The Red Raiders won and covered three of their past four bowls and were the country’s best team ATS this season at 12-1. Texas Tech also is on an 8-3 under run. Edge: Texas Tech and under.

Alabama vs. Indiana (-7, 47½), Rose Bowl, CFP: The Hoosiers are making their first Rose Bowl game appearance since 1968, though they did play in the stadium last year in the regular season and rolled to a 42-13 rout of UCLA. Indiana lost and failed to cover its playoff game at Notre Dame last season, but has since gone 17-9 ATS. The Hoosiers are on an 8-4 over run. Alabama returns to the Rose Bowl after losing a playoff game in Pasadena, California, two years ago to Michigan in overtime. The Crimson Tide are on an 8-3-1 spread run and a 9-2 under run. Alabama has won five straight road games and is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Edge: Slight to Alabama and under.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-6½, 55½), Sugar Bowl, CFP: Rematch of Oct. 18 game at Georgia, when the Bulldogs won and barely covered as 7½-point favorites in a 43-35 comeback victory. That avenged a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss last season. The Rebels are on a 7-4 ATS run and 7-3 under run and went 1-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Georgia is on a 7-3 under run and 6-3 ATS uptick after an 0-5 spread slide. Edge: Under and slight to Ole Miss.

Friday

Rice vs. Texas State (-16, 57½), Armed Forces Bowl: Rice received a bowl bid despite a 5-7 record. The Owls are on a 2-5 spread slide and allowed 50-plus points in each of their past two games. They’re also 3-4 ATS as double-digit underdogs. Rice is on a 7-4 over run. Texas State needed to win its past three games to become bowl-eligible. The Bobcats failed to cover their past three as double-digit favorites, but have won bowls the past two seasons while going 1-1 ATS. Edge: Slight to Rice.

Navy (-7½, 54½) vs. Cincinnati, Liberty Bowl: Navy has covered seven straight bowls, but is on a 2-7 spread slide overall and an 0-5 ATS losing streak as a favorite. Cincinnati has lost and failed to cover its past four games following a seven-game winning streak. Edge: Slight to Navy.

Arizona (-2, 51½) vs. SMU, Holiday Bowl: Arizona coach Brent Brennan lost and failed to cover all three bowls with San Jose State, though the Wildcats went 9-3 straight up this season and 8-4 ATS, including covers in their past three. Arizona is on under runs of 4-0 and 8-4. SMU has lost and failed to cover its past five bowl/playoff games, though they covered five of their last seven games this season. The Mustangs are on a 7-3 under run. Edge: Arizona and under.

Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3, 53½), Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest is on a 7-2 spread run and went 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season. It is also on a 7-3 over run. The Bulldogs lost and failed to cover their past three following ATS runs of 8-1 and 14-3. Mississippi State is on a 4-1 over surge. Edge: Slight to Wake Forest and over.