Sharp bets move lines on NFL divisional round playoff games

It’s not often that a No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs is an underdog in its postseason opener, but that is the case for the Denver Broncos in the AFC divisional round.

The sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills are consensus 1½-point road favorites over the Broncos in Saturday’s game.

“It’s interesting that Buffalo’s the favorite in this game. You rarely see the 1 seed not the favorite,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “I think Denver is way overpriced and overvalued. That doesn’t mean they won’t close the favorite in this game. But I just think all year long they’ve been a little overrated.

“I think when push comes to shove, the sharp money on that game will be on Denver. I think Denver will close the favorite.”

There already has been sharp action on both sides of the game at the Westgate SuperBook.

“We opened that game pick, and one of our sharper guys laid pick on Buffalo to -1, and now we had one of our even sharper players bet Denver +1, so now we’re back to pick,” Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.

He expects the betting public to back the Bills, who upset the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 on Sunday as 1½-point road underdogs after quarterback Josh Allen scored a late touchdown.

“Everyone out here now on TV is telling you how great Josh Allen is and how great the Bills are,” Salmons said. “It basically took them the last drive of the game to score to win, so it’s not like they killed Jacksonville. I like the Broncos. I just think they’ve been the better team all year.”

Rams-Bears

A higher seed also is favored over a lower seed in the NFC, where the No. 5 Los Angeles Rams are consensus 3½-point road favorites over the No. 2 Chicago Bears after the line opened at 4.

“We opened 3½, up to 4, back to 3½, so a little two-way. I would consider it sharp money on both,” Bogdanovich said. “Again, it’s rare that you see a higher seed be a favorite on the road. But the Rams have had such immense respect all year long from the sharp bettors, and all the pundits and prognosticators seem to think that, top to bottom, the Rams have the best all-around team.

“Chicago’s got Harry Houdini on their side. They pull a game out every week.”

The Westgate took sharp action on the under, which has dipped to 51 after reaching as high as 51½.

“We saw Sunday in Chicago high 18 (degrees), low 10, but not a lot of wind,” Salmons said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if that total is going to have a lot of over play with the public.”

He also expects the public to back the Rams, who rallied for a 34-31 win over the Carolina Panthers on Saturday but didn’t cover as 10½-point favorites. The Bears erased a 21-3 halftime deficit in a 31-27 win over the Packers as 1½-point home underdogs.

“I don’t understand these teams that get these leads and then just say they’re done trying to score,” Salmons said. “The Rams are such a better team than the Bears. I’m surprised the line is as low as it is.”

Seahawks-49ers

The top-seeded Seattle Seahawks are 7½-point home favorites over the sixth-seeded San Francisco 49ers on Saturday after the line opened at 7. It’s a rematch of Seattle’s 13-3 road win over the Niners in Week 18.

“We opened 7, up to 7½,” Bogdanovich said. “The early sharp money was professional, and I think you’ll see the public all over Seattle on this game.

“I don’t blame them. If you watched the first game, it looked like Seattle could’ve beat them by whatever score they wanted to beat them by. We’ll definitely need the Niners.”

San Francisco upset the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19 on the road Sunday as a 5½-point underdog.

“It’s a really tough spot for the Niners,” Salmons said. “They’re playing on a short week, travel and Seattle with the bye. We just saw that game two weeks ago where Seattle left a million points on the board and their defense overwhelmed the Niners.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.