Colts safe preseason pick to lose

Six months after winning the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts again seem content to be cellar dwellers in the NFL preseason.

In August, Manning makes only cameo appearances at quarterback, and winning is not a priority for coach Tony Dungy. As a result, the Colts have lost 10 of their past 11 preseason games.

Indianapolis is a 2 1/2-point home underdog to the Chicago Bears today in a pseudo Super Bowl rematch. The line move of five points is more of an indictment of the Colts than an endorsement of the Bears.

"We're seeing no money on the Colts," said MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker, who opened Indianapolis as a 2 1/2-point favorite. "I can't see them taking it that seriously."

The same might be true of the Bears. It's not possible for Chicago to win a preseason game and wash away the bitterness of its 29-17 loss to the Colts in the Super Bowl.

"Conventional wisdom would say the Bears are looking to avenge the Super Bowl, but that's a bunch of garbage," handicapper Andy Iskoe said.

If more anti-Colts money moves the line to 3, Iskoe said he probably would recommend a bet on Indianapolis.

Searching for any motivational edge is pure speculation. But if edges are to be found, the Bears have them in quarterback depth and overall talent at most positions.

Manning took eight snaps in the Colts' preseason opener, a 23-10 loss at Dallas. Manning and the starters are scheduled to see about 20 plays tonight. Once Manning leaves the field, inexperienced backups Jim Sorgi and Josh Betts will operate the Indianapolis offense.

"You can't believe Manning is going to get a lot of playing time, and there's a big drop-off from Manning to anybody," Walker said.

Chicago has a more competitive quarterback rotation with Brian Griese and Kyle Orton, who have combined for 87 NFL starts, backing up starter Rex Grossman. Griese and Orton are battling for the No. 2 position.

Bears coach Lovie Smith said he has his deepest team yet, and linebacker Brian Urlacher and defensive tackle Tommie Harris are expected to make their preseason debuts today.

The MGM Mirage's preseason betting limits are $3,000 for a side and $1,000 for a total. In the regular season, the limits rise to $30,000 to $50,000 on sides and $10,000 on totals.

"A lot of the preseason games are won by accident," said Iskoe, whose records show preseason favorites going 14-16-1 through Sunday of Week 2. The totals trend favored overs -- 17-13-2 -- thanks to 11 of the first 15 games in Week 2 going over the total.

Most coaches treat Week 3 as a dress rehearsal for the regular season, with starters typically playing the entire first half. Iskoe (thelogicalapproach.com) said that makes this week's schedule "the most realistic wagering opportunity" for placing a first-half bet and eliminating the unknown.

"People like to bet the preseason, but they bet it accordingly. Nobody goes crazy," Walker said. "It's hard to bet when guys who might not make the team are deciding the point spread at the end of the game."