Deals luring people for holiday, but will they spend?

Memorial Day: It's not just for barbecuin'.

The last Monday in May also provides key economic insight into profoundly important local tourism trends. For example, will the Strip see more visitors than it did during the same weekend last year? Will guests spend more? What's up with average daily room rates? And would anyone really go see "Criss Angel Believe," even with a discount?

So far, it looks like Las Vegas should welcome more tourists this Memorial Day, but they'll spend less than they did a year ago. And depending on whom you ask, room rates will tick up either slightly or a lot. (As for answering that last question, you can go size up the crowd yourself: "Criss Angel Believe" is offering free seat upgrades for the weekend.)

"I think the numbers are reflective of the trend we've seen in the last several months," said Kris Tibbs, research manager for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. "Folks still have an interest in coming to Las Vegas, but they just have tighter budgets, so overall spending is down."

The authority's researchers expect 304,000 visitors to flock to Las Vegas this weekend, up 3.8 percent from the 293,000 tourists who came here over 2009's Memorial Day weekend. They'll have an estimated nongaming impact of $168.8 million, down 5.4 percent from $178.4 million a year earlier. The market's hotel-room occupancy rate should dip to 93.5 percent, down from 94.7 percent in the same weekend of 2009, but that's mostly because of a spike in inventory. The number of rooms available is up 5.6 percent year over year, from 140,617 rooms to 148,500 rooms, thanks mostly to CityCenter.

The latest figures from travel club AAA also project gains in regional tourism this weekend.

An AAA survey found that more than 2.5 million people in the Mountain West plan to travel 50 miles or more over the holiday weekend. That's a 7.6 percent increase from Memorial Day 2009. Driving traffic should grow by 8 percent, while trips by airplane should increase 4.7 percent.

"Despite a challenging economy, travel is expected to rebound for this Memorial Day weekend," AAA Nevada spokesman Michael Geeser said in a statement. "With a hint of renewed economic optimism, the upcoming holiday weekend will likely have Mountain West residents making up for their previously delayed travel plans."

Companies that book local hotel rooms via the Internet are finding improved indicators as well.

At Vegas.com, advance bookings point to a 15 percent jump in Las Vegas visitation this weekend from 2009, said Dan Hippler, vice president of marketing. As of Wednesday, the website was showing an average daily room rate over the weekend of $104, up 2.5 percent from 2009's $101 asking price.

Hippler credited the higher stats to macroeconomic issues -- national demand for travel is picking up as the economy stabilizes -- and microeconomic factors, such as special deals on the Strip.

"I think people are traveling more this year than in the past, and Las Vegas is still a very attractive destination," Hippler said. "Yahoo released numbers recently saying that Las Vegas topped its list in terms of rankings for summer destinations. Las Vegas is a good deal and has a lot to offer from a value standpoint."

At travel website i4vegas.com, holiday bookings are roughly the same as they were a year ago, but the average daily room rate has jumped to $93, up nearly 25 percent from $75 a year ago, said CEO Michael Zaletel.

Zaletel attributed the room-rate spike to higher demand in the months and weeks preceding Memorial Day. With visitor volume up in all but one of the last seven months, hotels were able to begin raising rates on Memorial Day's advance bookings earlier in the spring. Consider May's overall average daily room rate of $65. That's up 20 percent from $56 in May 2009. Bookings were up 10 percent year over year in May, as well. The rise in rates is a good sign that demand is returning, and hotels can goose rates a little as a result, Zaletel said.

But Zaletel sees a few warning signs. If resort operators augment rates too much and too quickly, they could hurt visitation. Bookings through i4vegas.com might be flat this Memorial Day over last because consumers don't like the higher prices they're seeing as the holiday draws closer, Zaletel said. A big gain in rates could turn away tentative travelers venturing out for their first major trip in months or years, and it would be preferable to sell out at lower room charges than to ask for too much and see empty rooms as a result, Zaletel said.

"I think everyone needs to move slowly. A lot has been done to convince the consumer that Las Vegas is a good deal again," he said. "Although it's positive to see (average daily rates) up 20 percent, if the asking rate goes up too much, people might not be willing to pay. If we can maintain the consumer's trust that Las Vegas is a good deal again, that will cause sustained, consistent, dependable growth, as opposed to a couple of good weekends."

At least one new report projects solid growth in tourism nationwide for the entire summer.

Chicago staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Friday that fewer layoffs and declining gasoline prices could bolster travel in the warmer months. And increased tourism would mean more spending in the country's leisure destinations. A bump in seasonal hiring among hotels, restaurants, retailers and amusement parks should follow, the company said.

"The travel industry and all of the related beneficiaries will not see a return to prerecession boom times, but it will be a significant improvement over the past couple of years," company Chief Executive Officer John Challenger said in a statement.

Employees enjoy more job security this year, as companies have switched from an emphasis on cutting staffs to a focus on retaining the workers left behind, Challenger said. Some employers might actually encourage workers to take vacation time to decompress from office-related stress. The markets that fare best amid rising travel would be destinations favored by driving vacationers, he said.

Contact reporter Jennifer Robison at jrobison@reviewjournal.com or 702-380-4512.