Southern Nevada economic index augurs flat growth

The Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators was essentially unchanged in November at 123.44, barely up from 123.39 the previous month, the Center for Business and Economic Research reported Wednesday.

Gaming revenue and construction pulled the index down, while taxable sales and other tourism-related components propped it up, said Bob Potts, assistant director at the research center.

The index shows a general upward trend from 122.37 a year ago, which suggests the possibility of an improving job picture in Southern Nevada, he said.

"Over the past six months, the index has been essentially flat," Potts said Wednesday. "It was kicking up a little prior to that. We're looking at modest growth at best."

The economic index, compiled by the research center at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, is a six-month forecast from the month of data, based on a net-weighted average of each series after adjusting for seasonal variation. November's index is based on September data.

Commercial building permit valuation increased 8.8 percent from the previous month, to $8.8 million in September; taxable sales rose 6.8 percent, to $2.57 billion and convention attendance grew 5.2 percent to 434,373.

Commercial building permits were down 52 percent to 13, residential building permits were down 16.8 percent to 323 and residential permit valuation decreased 22.8 percent to $37.3 million.

Las Vegas showed year-over-year job growth of 1.3 percent and an unemployment rate of 13.1 percent in October, the Nevada Department of Employment, Rehabilitation and Training reported.

Nevada employers added 400 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, not much, but enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, DETR economist Jered McDonald said. The number of unemployed job seekers was unchanged at 176,400 in October, he said.

Overall, there are some positives in this month's numbers, but for a state looking to bounce back from a deep recession, the numbers leave considerable room for improvement, McDonald said.

"I think in general things are just flat," the economist said. "We're seeing less than 1 percent growth. Maybe it'll be more robust going into 2012, but nothing like we've seen during the expansion, probably 1 (percent) to 2 percent."

Holiday seasonal hiring may be a little stronger than last year, but nothing spectacular, McDonald said. Last year, retail employers added just 3,400 jobs, low by historical standards, he said.

The Clark County Business Activity Index posted modest growth in September, rising to 158.50 from 155.55 the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, gaming revenues were down by 6.6 percent, while taxable sales and employment were up by 10.5 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.

"The bottom line is if I look at business activity, everything is just kind of holding its own and trying to gain traction -- and it has in tourism, but construction still hasn't gained traction," Potts said.

"It looks like there's potential

Contact reporter Hubble Smith at hsmith@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0491.