Analyst says flight reductions may not be as bad as expected

An aviation analyst says the Federal Aviation Administration-ordered cuts in flights won’t be as bad as it sounds.

Mike Boyd of Evergreen, Colorado-based Boyd Group International, said airlines are carefully choosing which flights to cut to inconvenience the fewest number of passengers possible. Boyd believes once 10 percent capacity reductions are reached by Friday, the reduction of passenger traffic will actually be 5 percent or less.

“The FAA wants airlines to take airplanes out of the sky, regardless of size,” Boyd said in a Sunday blog post. “Whether it’s a 300-seat Delta A350-900, or a 50-seat CRJ550, both count as a flight reduced. Airlines will be re-jiggering flight schedules to inconvenience the lowest number of passengers. That means simply that air travel won’t be some daily giant guessing game, as being implied.”

Earlier Sunday, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that air traffic could “slow to a trickle” if the federal government shutdown threatens the busy Thanksgiving travel holiday season.

The FAA last week ordered flight cuts at the nation’s busiest airports as some air traffic controllers, who have gone unpaid for nearly a month, have stopped showing up for work.

Senators advanced legislation to end the 40-day government shutdown during a vote Sunday. But final passage could take several days if Democrats who oppose the deal object and draw out the process.

Critical stage for Las Vegas

Boyd’s comments came as travel to and from Las Vegas reaches toward a critical stage — the arrival of Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix fans next week, Thanksgiving holiday travel the week after that and arrivals for the Wrangler National Finals Rodeo the week after that.

This week, the total number of flights will be reduced to the 10 percent goal stated by the FAA and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. For Las Vegas, that’s about 150 fewer flights. The reduction goal was 4 percent Friday, but will jump to 6 percent Tuesday — the day federal airport workers will miss their second paycheck — to 8 percent Thursday and 10 percent Friday.

Arriving passengers and officials at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas have said delays, cancellations and chaos has been minimal here compared with other airports across the country.

FlightAware, which tracks flights at the world’s airports, said there were 1,566 flight cancellations within the United States Saturday and 7,536 flight delays. Of those, in Las Vegas, there were 27 cancellations and 198 delays. Most of those involved Reid’s busiest commercial air carrier, Southwest Airlines, which had 16 cancellations and 81 delays, according to FlightAware.

Not all delays and cancellations are a result of the FAA mandate to reduce flights, but FlightAware doesn’t say how many of them are due to bad weather or aircraft mechanical problems. Reid also points out that flight delays at other airports can result in delay problems here when flights get behind schedule.

Sunday at Reid

Sunday was expected to be a little bumpier for passengers as the traditional weekend getaway day.

As of midafternoon, there were 66 cancellations, 27 on Southwest, and 304 delays, 160 on Southwest.

The airport’s Transportation Security Administration lines were manageable, with wait lines of less than 10 minutes at Terminal 1’s three checkpoints.

The ticket counters also were manageable Sunday afternoon with Southwest having the longest lines. It took passengers just under five minutes to get from the end of the line to the bag-tag kiosk and just under seven minutes to be processed and ready to go through security checks at midafternoon Sunday.

U.S. airlines canceled more than 2,100 flights Sunday mostly because of the government shutdown and the FAA’s order to reduce air traffic.

The slowdown at 40 of the nation’s busiest airports is now in its third day and beginning to cause more widespread disruptions. That includes more than 7,000 additional delays Sunday alone, according to FlightAware.

More than 1,000 flights were canceled Friday, and more than 1,500 more on Saturday.

FlightAware is already projecting 800 cancellations in the United States on Monday, 32 of those in Las Vegas. For Tuesday, FlightAware anticipates 477 cancellations, with 14 at Reid.

Travelers arriving at Reid Sunday afternoon had mixed experiences at the airports from which they left.

Passengers on a Delta flight from Minneapolis-St. Paul said the Boeing 757 jet was packed. One passenger, Paula Parker of Minnesota, said her flight was delayed by four hours. But another man on the same flight said it was a normal and smooth journey. The reason – Delta combined two flights to one.

Parker, in Las Vegas with a group to see the “Wizard of Oz” show at the Sphere, said her son is a federal employee in Alaska who is required to work, but isn’t getting paid and she said it’s wearing thin on him.

“There are a lot of benefits to working for the government, but this is one of the drawbacks,” Parker said.

Danielle Stephens who flew in Sunday from John Wayne Airport in Santa Ana, California, said her flight had an on-time departure after being told there could be a five-minute delay. After a stop in Sacramento, the plane went out 20 minutes late.

Stephens said if she had the opportunity to talk to congressmen, she would urge them to settle the shutdown before the holidays to remove the prospect of ruined family gatherings.

For the airlines, Boyd said the overall damage will be uneven with Southwest taking the biggest hit.

“More than other network airline systems, Southwest is looking down the barrel of a real disparity in ability to mitigate effects of the FAA rollback,” Boyd wrote.

“Dallas Love Field is one of the 40 airports. Southwest has about 150 departures per day. Axing out 15 or 16 flights can certainly be done, but unlike the situation facing American Airlines at Dallas-Fort Worth International, United Airlines at Chicago O’Hare International or Delta Air Lines at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, Southwest does not have any lightweight, low-capacity feed flights at Love Field, which means any cuts will zap core Dallas revenue.”

Other airlines will have challenges, including Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air, he said.

“It’s an open challenge for the smaller airline players at these 40 airports. In some markets, for example, Frontier may have just a couple flights a week. Limiting cuts to as low as 10 percent may be tough if not impossible due to low frequency and number of seats per flight. Same challenge in some cases for Sun Country and Allegiant.”

With the Las Vegas Grand Prix scheduled to run Nov. 20-22, there may be fewer effects on air traffic since many of those arriving to view race practice, time trials and the main race event will be arriving on charter flights and private aircraft and fly into airports other than Reid.

Thanksgiving

But Thanksgiving could be a different story.

“By the day when millions of turkeys meet their untimely end, USA carriers will have their systems adjusted,” Boyd said “And decline in passenger volume will be probably less than 5 percent. That’s because the true capacity reduction will be closer to that number. There may be fewer flights on the schedule — maybe — but by Turkey Day it will be based on hard airline pre-planned schedule decisions, not random willy-nilly cancellations.”

While most airlines say they are being proactive about notifying their passengers of pending flight cancellations, Reid officials have continued to tell passengers they should reach out to their airlines for details about cancellations and potential delays and to arrive earlier to the airport in case TSA security lines are longer than normal.

Boyd also noted that a prolonged flight reduction order could soon affect the U.S. economy.

“Basically, there is room in most cases to accommodate the flight reductions just mandated,” he said. “But that slack is not unlimited, and should it go to 20 percent, as has been suggested as possible, there will be major financial and economic harm to air transportation and to the economy.”

Boyd’s advice to passengers: Just relax.

“It’s a tornado of confusion in the media,” he said. “So, maybe it’s time to step back. Everybody chill. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em. Everybody relax. Everybody just ignore the panting stories of air service Armageddon.”

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on X. The Associated Press contributed to this story.