Las Vegas airport sees big drop-off in flights from Canada

Las Vegas may need to brace for a continued dropoff in airline passengers heading its way.

A downturn in flights to Las Vegas from Canada and operational issues for one of Harry Reid International Airport’s busiest carriers have prompted a consultant to forecast a capacity downturn in the second half of 2025.

The projection is one more negative indicator for Southern Nevada’s slumping tourism industry as the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority focuses on filling the fewer planes that will be flying to the destination.

In a report to the LVCVA’s board of directors Tuesday, Atlanta-based Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting said airline capacity is expected to fall by 2.3 percent from 2024, to 34.5 million inbound seats, or roughly 95,000 seats a day.

The report is based on airlines’ published schedules through the end of the year.

Joel Van Over, senior director of Ailevon Pacific, told board members that most of the projected 2 percent decline in international arrivals at Reid can be attributed to the projected 18.5 percent drop-off in traffic from Canada.

Van Over, in his 20-minute presentation, said the number of inbound seats from Canada has fallen to an average of 2,412 a day.

Overall, Las Vegas’ total number of air passengers this year through June fell 4.1 percent from the same period last year, according to LVCVA data.

Canada comprises the biggest share of international visitors to Las Vegas. Despite the decline from America’s northern neighbor, Las Vegas has seen a 31.7 percent increase in airline capacity from Asia, a 21.6 percent increase from Europe excluding the United Kingdom, and a 19.2 percent boost from Mexico.

Traffic from the U.K. inched up 0.7 percent, but traffic from other Latin American destinations fell 4.1 percent.

Streak ends

The overall international capacity decline ends a growth streak Las Vegas has enjoyed since 2021.

Experts say a combination of factors is responsible for the dropoff, including the spillover effects of proposed tariffs and President Donald Trump’s remarks about making Canada the U.S.’s 51st state, a stance that has prompted widespread resentment.

In May, the World Travel & Tourism Council reported that the U.S. was on track to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year.

“While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, said in a news release.

The decline from Spirit Airlines is a different story.

The Florida-based ultra-low-cost airline is Reid International’s second-busiest carrier, but the volume of passengers it can fly has been declining since October 2024.

Spirit grounding

Van Over said Tuesday that Spirit currently has 50 planes grounded because of maintenance issues.

“They have an issue with their (jet) engines.” Van Over said. “They have to pull that engine off the plane, fix the cracks, put it back on the plane, and that whole process takes about 300 days. So obviously they can’t just do a plane a year because it would take them 100 years to get that done.”

With planes grounded, Spirit has not been able to maintain its published schedule and is flying less in several markets, creating financial issues. The airline has attempted to bolster finances with merger proposals with Frontier Airlines and JetBlue Airways. Merger talks with Frontier collapsed, and a JetBlue proposal was rejected by the Justice Department.

While Spirit’s issues have been the main reason for Las Vegas’ capacity contraction, other airlines have also telegraphed capacity issues in their recent earnings calls.

American, Southwest, Delta and United have all indicated intentions to pull back capacity through at least December.

Van Over said compared with other markets, Las Vegas is holding its own.

At the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year in June, Las Vegas led the nation in percentage increase among U.S. cities at 23 percent, besting airports in Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis and Orlando.

The LVCVA is attempting to sell the Las Vegas experience in marketing programs centered around social media, including through paid influencers. Programs have emphasized concerts, entertainment and sports.

During the summer lull when leisure visitation falls as temperatures climb, the LVCVA has focused on entertainment residencies with the likes of Beyonce, the Backstreet Boys, Lionel Richie, Pitbull and Ricky Martin. It also ramped up interest in Las Vegas’ culinary offerings and college football with Big Ten media day.

Van Over said he will be joined by LVCVA and Reid officials in Hong Kong in September for World Routes 2025, a global gathering of the world’s airlines and destinations that features one-on-one meetings to convince air carriers to regularly fly to their airports.

Contact Richard N. Velotta at rvelotta@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3893. Follow @RickVelotta on X.