Ominous clouds looming over shows

If the big storm is coming, how come no one is nailing boards over the windows?

With credit tight and gas at $3.25 a gallon well before summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few shows fold their tents and move on.

Instead, Brett Daniels is bringing new afternoon magic to the Sahara. It will be the fifth show at a hotel not known for occupying the hottest corner of the Strip.

A few titles say goodbye but they get replaced -- directly or by domino effect: "Fashionistas" leaves the Harmon Theater, so Amazing Johnathan moves in and Roseanne Barr takes his vacated spot at the Sahara. When Society of Seven leaves the Flamingo Las Vegas next month, Nathan Burton takes over and Gordie Brown -- who recently closed at The Venetian -- goes to the V Theater in Burton's wake.

Empty venues at Paris Las Vegas and the Rio are ominous signs. But "Jersey Boys" is coming to the Palazzo.

And what about Jimmy Hopper finding a new room at Trader Vic's? Or David Spade pushing hubcaps aside to perform each month on the "Stomp Out Loud" stage at Planet Hollywood?

Is everyone in denial? Or is it that ...

"We're all stubborn," says David Saxe, who is producing his friend Brown's show at the V. "Everybody thinks they can do a better job than everybody else." And, he adds, "I can't control how big the pie is. Just my piece."

But don't think producers haven't felt the first drops from that big, black cloud. "It is very soft," says Dick Foster, co-producer of "Hats" at Harrah's Las Vegas. "It normally starts to pick up more around Presidents Day, and it hasn't this year."

"Hats" seemed to be a recession-proof idea; a title that delivers its own audience, the ladies of the Red Hat Society. Still, "I would have expected more by this time," Foster says of the musical that opened in January. "It's been a slower build than normal."

"Thunder from Down Under" producer Adam Steck says "the half-price thing is a little out of control." The proliferation of same-day, half-price ticket booths undermines traditional advertising and "forces producers to sell that way, as opposed to full-priced tickets."

Smaller shows "survived on those techniques for the longest time," Steck notes. But now, big players such as Cirque du Soleil are offering half-price tickets and steep discounts. "In the past, they've never had to do that."

If Cirque discounts, what happens to little shows such as "The Soprano's Last Supper" at the Riviera? Producer Maggie Cupp is so far hanging tough. But she closed a similar interactive dinner show, "Joey and Maria's Comedy Italian Wedding" at the Empire Ballroom.

"I know it's gonna get better," Cupp says. "It's just a question of when."

Mike Weatherford's entertainment column appears Thursdays and Sundays. Contact him at 383-0288 or e-mail him at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com.