‘Wicked’ wait a test for locals

Locals, can we uphold the honor system?

Take it easy, "Seinfeld" die-hards. It's not "The Contest." I'm talking about whether you can stay away from "Wicked" until late August of 2012.

The Smith Center is counting on you locals to bring it, reversing a bad reputation for Broadway on the Strip.

And face it. We deserve it. We don't rush to open-ended runs of "The Lion King" or "Phantom." We wait for cousin Elias to visit, or for someone who knows someone at the casino to get us in free.

Don't try any of that downtown. "Wicked" is only booked for six weeks. Your buddy in valet probably won't get comps.

But here is a new twist for my soapbox. Loyal readers (Hi, Mom!) may remember past musings about the Broadway-to-Vegas trend, a forecaster called "The Tulsa test."

That's in honor of my hometown, which also happens to be a Middle American feeder market that loves Vegas. And it's a place that's been getting Broadway tours for years in a theater like the one we're building.

The test works like this: If a Broadway musical comes to the Strip, and if folks in T-town have already seen it, maybe it's a bit late for an open-ended run. Remember, tourists tend to prioritize Cirque-type shows they can't see at home.

The test turned out to be a good forecaster for duds such as "The Producers" and "Hairspray" (the latter co-produced by the Smith Center's head, Myron Martin, which suggests he will learn from the past). "Monty Python's Spamalot" was even more telling. It did OK at first, but faded as road shows worked their way around the country.

If "Wicked" was coming to the Strip, I would seriously question whether it's too late. But the Smith Center should reverse the tourist-to-locals ratio of the Strip. Hopefully we can retire the Tulsa test.

If "Wicked" packs 'em in, that is.

Can you stay away from "Wicked" in Costa Mesa, Calif., during spring break next March? Or Tucson in January? Or Fresno, Boise, Omaha? Anywhere you might visit Grandma before 2012?

For us, that's Tulsa. And, whataya know? "Wicked" will be right there in November -- for the second time -- when we visit for Thanksgiving. And I've got a 10-year-old who doesn't want to wait until she's almost 13.

Should we all pledge to hold off in support of our new auditorium? Explain that nobility to a 10-year-old, pal. In truth, theater fans avid enough to see it out of town will probably see it here, too.

The point is, we have to play catch-up with "Wicked" because there was no other option. But once that new theater is up and running? Put us in line early. Maybe even get Broadway-bound shows here for shakedown test runs.

Because we all know how well the honor system works.

Contact reporter Mike Weatherford at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0288.