Replacing Harry Reid won’t be politics as usual

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid casts a long shadow as the race for his seat rumbles to life.

Email blasts are asking for money. Early polls have started. And Election Day is still more than 15 months away.

A high-stakes election is ahead as both parties hope to claim the retiring 75-year-old Democrat’s Senate seat.

On one side is Reid’s political machine and a successor he’s backing, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, 50, a former Nevada attorney general.

On the other is U.S. Rep. Joe Heck, 53, a Republican who has carved out three wins in a competitive district since 2010. Heck, who jumped into the race Monday, is a physician and brigadier general in the Army Reserve.

Both want to succeed Nevada’s senior senator, who was the Senate majority leader until Republicans took control in the November 2014 elections. Both candidates are likely locks to win their party’s nomination in the primary and advance to the general election in November 2016.

Reid’s star is fading, but the five-term senator remains a force to be reckoned with. This time it’s different: He’s in the sunset of his career and is not a candidate.

The election is both a legacy-making capstone of Reid’s Senate career and a closely watched race that could deter­mine which party has control of the Senate. Republicans are defending 24 of 34 seats in the 2016 election cycle. They have limited opportunities to pick up any Democratic seats, aside from Nevada and perhaps Colorado.

“This is his legacy,” said Fred Lokken, professor of political science at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno. “He does not want to see it go Republican. Harry Reid is not running for re-election, but he will be a huge factor in the race.”

BIG MONEY RACE

Tens of millions of dollars poured into Nevada’s 2010 Senate race, which Reid won. Reid and his opponent, Sharron Angle, spent a combined $54 million on the 2010 campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks money in politics. It was the nation’s second-most expensive Senate race that year.

That price tag was only through their direct campaigns. Outside groups spent almost $19 million for or against the two candidates, according to the center.

Reid’s fundraising hasn’t been limited to his campaigns. The Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic political action committee guided by Reid, helps Democrats get elected to the Senate.

Cortez Masto’s support from the Reid machine is just beginning. In May, Reid headlined a breakfast for her at the Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., seeking contributions of $1,000 to $2,700, according to the invitation.

This time around, Republicans don’t have the added incentive of putting a Senate majority leader into early retirement, as they had hoped to do in 2010.

“Some of the kind of personal bitter­ness between the parties has gone away,” said Eric Herzik, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Reno. “Reid’s not in the race. Had Reid been running, you would have Republicans looking at not just a pickup, but ‘I’m going to spend any amount of money to beat Harry Reid.’ ”

“Now, it’s business,” he said. “It’s not personal.”

One Democratic operative who asked for anonymity said the race is “not a Harry Reid 2010 level. I think on both sides it would be less than a Reid race. When it’s a majority leader, it’s a more expensive race.”

But no one doubts that the Heck-Cortez Masto campaign will be costly.

“It’s going to be an expensive race because both parties see this as an opportunity for a significant hold or a pickup for the Republicans,” Herzik said.

And Reid’s name won’t be fading from the fundraising calls of either campaign.

On Tuesday, Heck finance director Elizabeth Britt emailed supporters seeking donations and mentioning Reid four times. Cortez Masto, while not named, was dubbed “Harry Reid’s hand-picked successor.”

“The truth is, we’re going to need everyone’s help,” Britt wrote. “In 2012, Harry Reid spent $12 million in Nevada, and we’re expecting an even bigger number in 2016. Harry Reid… is not going to go away quietly. But we aren’t going to let them buy this election, are we?”

PATH TO VICTORY

The path to victory is expected to be different for each side, based on their strengths.

At this early stage, pundits and Nevada political observers say the race between Heck and Cortez Masto is an even match. Neither camp is publicly talking about specific strategies.

The race is ranked a “pure toss-up” by independent analysts with the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report, which also says it’s the best Senate race for a GOP takeover.

Cortez Masto has the experience of running and winning statewide campaigns. She won attorney general races with 52.8 percent of the vote in 2010 and 59 percent in 2006.

Her statewide name recognition and experience campaigning throughout Nevada will help, political experts say.

Cortez Masto also would be the first Latina to be elected to a Nevada U.S. Senate seat, a factor with the potential to boost interest and participation from Latino voters, many of whom sat out the 2014 elections.

“They didn’t come out in past elections and certainly not in the midterms,” said a Democratic strategist, referencing the 2014 election.

Nevada Democrats got pounded in 2014, when many voters stayed home. The GOP swept all the constitutional office races and gained control of the Assembly and state Senate. For 2016, with an open race for the White House, turnout and participation will be higher.

Heck, for his part, has experience winning hard-fought elections in what has been called the most competitive congressional district in the state.

Heck’s closest federal race was his first, when he unseated Democrat Dina Titus 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent. He beat Democrats John Oceguera by 50.4 percent to 42.9 percent in 2012 and Erin Bilbray by 60.8 percent to 36.1 percent in 2014.

To win, Heck and Cortez Masto will need to do well in Clark County, home to about 2 million people, 70 percent of the state’s population.

A candidate doesn’t have to win the county to win the election, but coming close is just about necessary.

Washoe County, the state’s second most populous, will be another battleground.

Republicans say Heck can carve out a path to winning by doing well in Clark County, and carrying the rural areas and Washoe County.

Unlike Cortez Masto, he will need to introduce himself to Northern Nevada voters. But a Clark County Republican candidate can get a warm welcome up North, Herzik said.

“You’ve got a naturally receptive audience,” he said.

Cortez Masto easily carried Washoe County in 2006 and 2010. The obvious caveats: Those races were against different candidates and with less money involved than a Senate race.

Both candidates will benefit from staff and volunteers beyond their own campaigns. Both parties will put resources toward registering voters in advance of the 2016 presidential election.

“The RNC has had staff on the ground in Nevada since 2013 engaging voters and building relationships around the state,” said Fred Brown, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee. “Unlike previous election cycles where we would parachute in six months before an election, we now have a permanent presence on the ground across the country.”

At this point, registered Democrats have the lead on registered Republicans in Nevada.

Statewide, 1.4 million voters are registered as of June. Of those, 569,793 are Democrats, and 476,021 are Republicans. The remaining 379,446 registered voters are unaffiliated or members of a third party.

But the numbers will increase as the task of registering more voters continues for more than a year.

And the battle to succeed Harry Reid is just beginning.

Contact Ben Botkin at bbotkin@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2904. Find him on Twitter: @BenBotkin1