When the PMI Group published its spring 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index projecting dropping housing prices, it didn’t seem the mortgage insurer’s evaluation of Las Vegas’ prospects could be much worse.
PMI, which weighs housing markets’ health and uses the information to determine whether it will underwrite and insure mortgages in an area, said back in April that prices in the Las Vegas housing market had a 91 percent chance of declining through early 2010.
But California-based PMI said today that Southern Nevada’s prospects for a quick housing recovery are even worse now than they were nearly a year ago. The company’s new Winter 2009 Risk Index, with stats compiled in the third quarter, shows that Las Vegas has a 99.4 percent chance of seeing lower housing prices two years from now.
That’s only good enough for No. 6 on PMI’s risk roster. California’s Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario market tops the Risk Index, with a 99.9 percent likelihood of price declines in the next two years. The Miami area posted a 99.9 percent probability for price drops as well. Las Vegas is the only market in the top 10 that’s not in California or Florida.
Nor should the 10 riskiest markets be alone in seeing price drops. The index found that 369 of the country’s 381 metropolitan statistical areas could see lower housing prices through the third quarter of 2010.
Cities in Texas and Ohio dominate the list of the country’s 10 most stable housing markets through 2010.
Winter 2009 PMI U.S. Market Risk Index
|Market||Odds of price decline|
|1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.||99.9 percent|
|2. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.||99.9 percent|
|3. Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.||99.8 percent|
|4. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale||99.8 percent|
|5. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla.||99.6 percent|
|6. Las Vegas||99.4 percent|
|7. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.||99.2 percent|
|8. Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.||98.7 percent|
|9. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.||98.3 percent|
|10. Jacksonville, Fla.||97.3 percent|