Nevada sales tax receipts expected to decline further

CARSON CITY -- Economic Forum members decided today that state tax receipts from sales taxes will continue to decline dramatically over the next six months as the recession in Nevada deepens.

The forum predicted sales tax receipts during the fiscal year ending June 30 will be $883 million, a 12 percent drop from the $1 billion that state government took in during the 2006-07 year. About one-third of state revenue comes from sales taxes.

Forum members see sales tax receipts slowly increasing to $888 million in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, and to $914 million in the fiscal year ending June 20, 2011.

Those figures are lower than sales tax receipts state government received in 2005.

Earlier today, Global Insight, an economic consulting firm hired by the state, said it does not see the Nevada economy recovering before 2010.

The company projected Nevada will lose 48,400 jobs during 2009 and hit an unemployment rate of nearly 9 percent early in 2010 before starting slowly to improve.

Janet Rogers, an analyst with the state budget office, said the company's pessimistic forecast does not show a turnaround until late in 2010.

The Economic Forum, a group of five private business leaders, will decide today how much money state government will have to spend over the next two years. Its forecast is binding on the governor and the Legislature in creating state government's 2009-11 two-year budget.

Two years ago, the forum predicted the state would have about $6.8 billion to spend for the current two-year budget.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.