Nonpartisan voters ready to wield clout in November races
In the nail-biters like the Harry Reid-Sharron Angle race and the Dina Titus-Joe Heck race, the numbers to watch closely are these: How are they polling with those quirky nonpartisan voters?
In the Senate race, while overall they are running even, Angle is leading Reid among the independent voters. She is the choice of 43 percent of the nonpartisans, and he's the choice of 36 percent of that all-powerful subgroup.
Remember, statewide nearly 164,000 people are registered nonpartisan voters. They can decide whether the Senate majority leader returns or the former Reno assemblywoman becomes Nevada's freshman senator.
In the 3rd Congressional District, the nonpartisans are evenly split, with 39 percent selecting Democratic Congresswoman Titus and 39 percent opting for her Republican challenger Heck.
In the governor's race, 56 percent of the nonpartisans align with Republican Brian Sandoval and 21 percent with Democrat Rory Reid, so the nonpartisan support isn't one bit critical in that race, despite the 12 percent undecided nonpartisan voters.
Those numbers make me question why Clark County firefighters are wasting time, money and energy against the Clark County commission chairman, since Sandoval is so far ahead the firefighters can't take credit for grinding Rory Reid into the ground.
Why engage in a war against Reid, when the truth is Clark County Fire Chief Steve Smith was the one who proposed getting rid of the county's heavy rescue unit and Clark County Manager Virginia Valentine approved it?
Well, in the midst of contract negotiations, punching Reid serves as a threat to other commissioners not to cross the firefighters' union or they'll use their clout against them in a future race.
But I digress from the Review-Journal/8NewsNow polls.
One of the oddities I noticed is that 34 percent of the nonpartisans said Rory Reid being the son of Harry Reid makes it less likely they would vote for him. But across the board, the majority of those asked said the sins of the father would have no effect on their vote. I thought Harry was dragging his kid down?
Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, set me straight. "If I am a Republican voter, I'm voting against both Reids regardless, because I hate 'em both," Coker said.
The more than half who said it won't impact their vote have already made up their minds to vote against both Reids.
Coker said the partisan numbers are reasonably close in the Senate race. Reid holds on to 79 percent of the Democrats and Angle keeps 77 percent of the Republicans. The nonpartisan voters who decide the race may decide late, Coker said.
As far as the 10 percent undecided among nonpartisans, Coker said, "Independent voters are generally the most fickle and generally the last to decide. That's why they're independent. ...
"Incumbents have a harder time getting many of the undecided independents; that's a general rule. If they haven't decided they're backing the incumbent, that means they have a problem with the incumbent and they'll go ahead and give the challenger a shot."
That seems to be why Angle is polling better than Reid among nonpartisans.
Nonpartisans' answers to other questions show they are aligning more with Republicans than Democrats. Some 60 percent of nonpartisans said they disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing, and 71 percent think the country is on the wrong track. Fifty percent said the Republicans would do a better job than Democrats to improve the economy and reduce unemployment if they controlled Congress.
With three months to go, at this point the typical Nevada nonpartisan would be an Angle-supporting, Sandoval-loving, Republican-leaning voter who in 2008 most likely voted for Obama.
Jane Ann Morrison's column appears Monday, Thursday and Saturday. E-mail her at Jane@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0275. She also blogs at lvrj.com/blogs/morrison.
