Odds favor Republican gains in Nevada Legislature, some say

CARSON CITY -- In little more than two weeks, the Nevada Legislature -- where Democrats hold healthy majorities in both houses -- might be dominated by more conservative members of the Republican Party.

But then again, it might not.

What happens could depend on whether voters see their incumbent legislators as nice guys and gals who are there to help them, regardless of their political party, or whether the national anti-incumbency, pro-Tea Party sentiment is so strong that the voters kick out all the scoundrels.

Picking in advance whether the Nov. 2 election will bring a paradigm switch to Carson City is like picking the winner of the World Series or Super Bowl. You really don't know, but you hope your team wins.

But a small group of political consultants and politicians of the two leading political parties, who talked with the Review-Journal on condition of anonymity, think that the Republicans will make small, and maybe key, gains in both houses.

They think the GOP might pick up one state Senate seat -- the District 5 seat in Clark County held by Joyce Woodhouse who is being challenged by Republican Michael Roberson -- leaving Democrats with an 11-10 majority. And it might gain up to as many as five seats in the Assembly, leaving Democrats still in control, 23-19.

Who wins those races is important because Republican victories could prevent the Democrats from gaining 2-to-1 control over both houses. Under the state constitution, any tax increase must be approved by at least two-thirds of the members of both houses.

State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas, already has said he expects that $1.5 billion in tax increases and $1.5 billion in budget cuts will be needed to cover what some see as a $3 billion revenue shortfall in 2011. Some Republicans contend the shortfall is much smaller, about $1.5 billion.

Democrats hold a veto-proof 28-14 advantage over Republicans in the Assembly and a 12-9 edge in the state Senate, or two votes short of a veto-proof majority.

The upsets are predicted in districts where the Republican-Democrat registration numbers are almost the same and in legislative seats Democrats picked two years ago during the electoral victory of President Barack Obama.

Several polls, according to sources, have been taken in state Senate District 5 that show Roberson in the lead. Poll results were not given to the Review-Journal.

There even is some wishful thinking by Republicans that they can regain control of the state Senate. For that to happen, though, they must take districts where Democrats hold massive registration advantages.

Their long shot is Sparks City Councilman Phillip Salerno who is bidding for the state Senate District 1 seat in Washoe County against longtime Democratic Assembly­woman Sheila Leslie.

In Clark County, Republicans have their fingers crossed that long shot Anthony "Tony" Wright can defeat Democratic Assemblyman Mark Manendo in state Senate District 7. Manendo, who always has won in a dramatic fashion, is term-limited from running again for the Assembly.

The district is 2-to-1 Democratic and a Wright victory would require help from disgruntled Democrats who align with the Tea Party.

That looks doubtful. A poll conducted for the Review-Journal last week found just as many respondents statewide support the Tea Party principles of limited government and low taxes as those who oppose them: 44 percent each.

Political scientists also don't see a big shift coming to the Legislature.

"I don't think we will see a 1994 wave on the down-ballot races," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I don't think it (the Tea Party) will have much effect."

That year was when the Republicans regained control of the U.S. House of Representative after 40 years of being the minority party.

It was also the year when Republicans in Nevada gained a tie in the Assembly. Both parties had 21 members so in 1995 they shared power -- and conducted a surprisingly peaceful legislative session. Republicans have not controlled the Assembly since 1985.

David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, also doesn't see much change coming in the Legislature due to the Tea Party or anti-incumbent mood of the electorate.

"The districts are pretty much gerry­mandered (to help the incumbents)," Damore said. "These races are getting no oxygen. People don't seem to care about down-ticket races."

Damore even expects some voters will cast ballots in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races and then walk out of the voting booth without marking the rest of the ballot. Democrats would be helped if that occurs, he noted.

Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas, hopes the anti-incumbent, Tea Party mood of voters doesn't extend down the ticket to legislative races.

"When I knock on doors in my district, people see me as John Oceguera. They see me at the supermarket. They see me at work. People know their legislators," Oceguera said.

Barring a landslide vote for Republican legislative candidates, Oceguera will become the Assembly speaker in 2011.

Like Oceguera, state Sen. Barbara Cegavake, R-Las Vegas, figures she has an advantage because voters in her district know her, too.

"I walk door to door. I have lived here 37 years. My kids went to school here. That's my advantage. It gets down to grass-roots campaigning," Cegavske said.

But Cegavske, who voted against major tax increases approved in the 2003 and 2009 sessions, sees Republicans, livid with anger over Washington politics, turning out in far larger numbers than Democrats, and helping the GOP win seats in the Legislature.

Democrats have made a point during the fall campaign of avoiding talk about tax increases.

Instead they mention how they must review spending by all state agencies, eliminate programs that are not necessary and set spending priorities.

Gubernatorial candidates Rory Reid, a Democrat, and Brian Sandoval, a Republican, both said during debates that they oppose all tax increases.

But what they do really doesn't matter since it takes a two-thirds majority of legislators to pass taxes, and also a two-thirds vote to override a veto. That means any tax increase backed by legislators already has enough votes to override a Reid or Sandoval veto.

Horsford might have fouled up his chance to gain seats. He was caught by the media last summer offering dinners and meetings with himself and other Democratic leaders for contributions of $25,000.

Sources say Horsford's mishap might have killed Democrat Tammy Peterson's chances of picking up the state Senate District 8 seat held by Cegavske. Democrats hold a small voter registration edge in the district and both parties have been flooding voters with information about their candidates.

One source suggested Horsford has moved resources out of District 8 because Cegavske might be too difficult to beat. The thinking is the District 5 seat held by Democrat Woodhouse in Henderson is vulnerable and Democratic campaign funds would be better spent there.

A victory by Republican Roberson over Woodhouse would doom any move by Democrats to gain a two-thirds majority and pass taxes unless some Republicans support them. There was limited Republican support for taxes in 2003 and 2009.

State Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, already has said state budgets have been cut to the bone and some tax increases will be needed.

Raggio, however, can expect a far more conservative Republican makeup of the state Senate in 2011. He could lose his leadership post.

While there may be an anti-incumbent mood about U.S. Sen. Harry Reid and members of Congress, Congress is not where Democrats like Oceguera serve.

He serves in Carson City where you must pass a balanced budget, necessitating compromises with the other party. He represents Assembly District 8 in Las Vegas and is an assistant fire chief in North Las Vegas.

All politics is local and people know and like their local politicians, Oceguera said. The Democrats running for the Legislature will do just fine on Nov. 2, he said.

That's not how former state Sen. Bob Beers, R-Reno, reads the mood of the voters.

He sees big gains for legislative Republicans coming. Democrats aren't going to turn out and vote in as large of numbers as in 2008 and that alone will put more Republicans in Carson City, he said.

Whether he is right could be known quickly. Each night during early voting, the secretary of state will post how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted. Cegavske maintains that already it is known far more Republicans than Democrats have turned in absentee ballots.

"I see a swing back to normalcy just as strong as the swing that caused President Obama to get elected two years ago," Beers said. "You saw ramifications at the local level then and you will see it again."

The national surge for Obama in 2008 led to an "overvote" by Democrats and helped Democrats seeking legislative seats, he said. The Democrats gained control of the state Senate for the first time since 1991.

Contact Capital Bureau Chief Ed Vogel at evogel@reviewjournal.com or 775-687-3901.