Poll puts figures on who could replace Ensign

Embattled Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., is unlikely to resign anytime soon.

But that doesn't mean Republicans won't speculate about who they would like to replace him.

Ensign, for those who aren't aware, has seen an extramarital affair scandal expand to include allegations he sought to cover up the incident by helping the cuckolded husband make illegal lobbying contacts.

Polling results from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research have now put numbers to the parlor game of speculating who might replace Ensign should he resign or be forced from office before his term ends in 2012.

The winner of this completely speculative exercise? Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev.

Heller was the first choice for 24 percent of 300 Republican voters who responded to Mason-Dixon.

In second with 17 percent of respondents each were Brian Sandoval, the leading Republican candidate for governor, and Danny Tarkanian, one of the leading Republicans in the race to challenge Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in the 2010 election.

Sue Lowden, another leading 2010 challenger, was next with 14 percent. Gov. Jim Gibbons placed last among the named options with just 4 percent.

Even if Ensign were to resign, Republican voters wouldn't get to choose the replacement.

That honor goes to Gibbons, a governor known for making unpredictable choices.

If Ensign were to resign, a Gibbons appointee would serve until the next general election in 2010.

"It gets weird because if Ensign resigns before 2010, then it is a very short tenure. If Ensign were to resign right after the election, it would be a much longer and more significant tenure," said University of Nevada, Reno political science professor Eric Herzik.

If Gibbons were to make an appointment based solely on self-interest, he could choose Sandoval, who is leading Gibbons as the Republican gubernatorial primary approaches.

"If he appointed, say, Brian Sandoval to the seat, he is taking away his major primary opponent. And Sandoval would not only be an odds on favorite to not only win the Republican primary in 2010, but win the seat," Herzik said.

There is precedent for a governor making a self-serving appointment. Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is facing corruption charges for trying to sell the appointment to President Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat.

In Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist picked a longtime aide to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mel Martinez, presumably so Crist can run for the seat in 2010.

Of course, there's always the chance a governor could make an appointment based on what's best for the citizens.

"It doesn't have to do the governor any particular good. It is not always that crass," Herzik said.

REID'S STANDING

Much of the focus on Nevada's 2010 Senate race has been on the need for Democratic incumbent Harry Reid to improve his own standing.

"There is just something about his personality that turns people off," said University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor David Damore.

But it's not just about whether Reid has enough time to improve his standing. Candidates like Lowden, one of the Republican front-runners, need to stay sharp, Damore said.

"Sue Lowden has plenty of time to do some stupid stuff herself," he said.

ENSIGN'S CHALLENGE

Regardless of whether Ensign is exonerated on the illegal lobbying allegations, he faces a tough political challenge.

The latest numbers from Mason-Dixon show Nevada voters who want to replace him outnumber those who want to re-elect him by a 2-to-1 margin.

It's a long time until Ensign's term ends in 2012, but the numbers today depict a senator in deep trouble.

"Even the Republicans are starting to turn on him at this point. He may have gone off the edge this time," pollster Brad Coker said. "That is a sign that you have suffered unsustainable political damage."

Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.