Poll suggests Gibbons a guaranteed election loser

Talk about a mandate for change, Nevadans' favorite candidates for governor aren't even running for office.

Respondents to a statewide poll said if the governor's election were held today, they would prefer that U.S. District Court Judge Brian Sandoval and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman face off in a general election.

The Review-Journal survey polled 400 registered voters. It also included an over-sampling of 300 Republicans and 300 Democrats who were only questioned about their respective party primary elections.

The poll included Sandoval, who recently announced he will resign from his judgeship effective Sept. 15, as a Republican choice and Goodman as a Democrat, though the former defense lawyer would more likely get into the race as an independent.

Candidates who are already in the race fared much worse, particularly Gov. Jim Gibbons and Democratic Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid.

In fact, Gibbons' performance in the primary could determine who takes the Governor's Mansion, according to the poll results. If Gibbons is the GOP's choice, he loses by double-digit margins to any of the contenders the poll pitted against him: Goodman, Reid and Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. But if Sandoval wins the GOP primary, he defeats all three of those candidates, the poll shows.

According to the results of the poll conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., 17 percent of Republican voters would support Gibbons in the primary, well behind 33 percent for Sandoval.

In a Democratic primary that includes Goodman, Reid got support from 13 percent of voters, trailing Buckley's 25 percent and Goodman's 34 percent.

In a two-way race without Goodman, 43 percent of Democrats chose Buckley, and 22 percent chose Reid.

Sandoval was the respondents' favorite candidate in every general election scenario, leading Goodman by 7 percentage points, Buckley by 8 and Reid by 17.

The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points on general election questions and 6 percentage points on primary questions.

"I think those numbers would exceed anybody's expectations," said a source close to Sandoval who asked to remain anonymous.

Jim Ferrence, political adviser to Goodman, said if the mayor were to run, it would be as an independent, which would change the dynamic of the race.

Also, Ferrence said internal polling several months ago showed a tighter race between Goodman and the two Democrats.

"That three-way was a lot closer," Ferrence said. "It was still the same order."

An assistant for Buckley said that the legislator was in Philadelphia celebrating her mother's 90th birthday and that she was unable to comment by deadline.

David Cohen, Reid's campaign manager, said his candidate's fundraising advantage will come into play as the campaign moves forward.

"What we have focused on is starting to shape a vision for the state and raising the dollars we need to make sure we can articulate that vision," Cohen said. "That's what I believe makes us a formidable candidate."

Ferrence concurred.

"The primary focus for that campaign has been the fundraising, and they've been wildly successful on that side," he said.

The results are clearly a boost for Sandoval, who most political observers expect will jump into the race once he officially steps down as judge.

"Of all the candidates, perhaps including Goodman, he is probably the strongest contender for next year," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon. "He's the guy to beat at this point."

But Coker said much can happen between now and the June primaries, let alone the November 2010 general election.

"At this point you are just kind of ranking people; it is kind of like the preseason college football polls," he said.

There's also a chance a dark horse candidate could pull off an upset in an unpredictable primary, especially on the more volatile Republican side.

Only 3 percent of Republicans chose former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon in a theoretical Republican primary. But Montandon consultant Steve Wark has worked 123 campaigns in Nevada, including three with Montandon, and says his candidate has the plan and the capability to accumulate enough supporters to win on primary day.

"As far as the Montandon campaign is concerned, we know exactly how many votes we need, we know exactly where those votes are," Wark said. "When you treat your campaign as a math problem, you become very singularly focused on where every single vote is, and you go out and capture it."

Wark says with the primary still 10 months away, they've identified 40 percent of the voters they need to win it.

"All you need is one more vote than the other person," Wark said.

Former state Sen. Joe Heck barely registered with poll respondents: 1 percent chose him. Heck's campaign did not return calls seeking comment.

Robert Olmer, campaign finance director for Gibbons, acknowledged the difficulty of the governor's situation but also said Gibbons will run a tough campaign.

Olmer said one thing going for Gibbons is that he stuck to his anti-tax increase pledge despite pressure from Democratic lawmakers while seeking to balance an upside-down state budget.

"I think the governor made the hard choices that needed to be made, and he seemed to be the only one to have the courage to do that," Olmer said.

Robert Uithoven, Gibbons' 2006 campaign manager, said the best thing Gibbons could do would be to make governing the priority over campaigning.

"If there is anything that will turn it around, it is not going to be some kind of campaign promise," Uithoven said. "It will be showing leadership."

That's still a possibility for Gibbons, said University of Nevada, Reno, political science professor Eric Herzik.

Herzik said Gibbons' tumultuous tenure in office does not mean his re-election is a lost cause. Despite personal scandals and professional gaffes, Herzik said, on a good day Gibbons can still resonate with a certain segment of Nevada voters.

"When Gibbons is on, he is able to connect with a wide selection of Nevada voters," Herzik said. "That's why he has won elections; it is not the elite that likes him."

But Herzik said Gibbons' pending divorce, some baffling job appointments and ill-advised choices of political battles have overshadowed whatever appeal he had with voters.

"I wouldn't say he has been on his game lately," Herzik said.

Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.