Porter’s lead slim against Titus

The results of a new Review-Journal poll in the 3rd Congressional District race were a surprise to everyone, except the candidate in the lead.

"You're kidding," said Erik Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno.

"I thought Dina would be ahead," said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

"We are encouraged by the momentum and enthusiasm for our campaign," said Matt Leffingwell, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., who held a 3 percentage point lead over Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus.

The nation's economic collapse, Titus' own ballyhooed polls and Porter's long-standing support for President Bush, now one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, would point to a solid Titus lead in the poll, the analysts had thought.

"I have to tell you, I wouldn't have expected this," Damore said.

Given that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, the race is a statistical dead heat.

"We have taken a big bite out of the 9 point lead she reported having," Leffingwell said.

Polled were 236 registered voters in the district, which rings Las Vegas and sprawls outward to the edges of Clark County.

In late September, aides in the Titus campaign reported that a poll they commissioned of 500 likely voters found the longtime leader of the state Senate's Democratic minority leading Porter 46 percent to 37 percent.

"This poll (the Review-Journal's) isn't consistent with what we've found," Titus said Friday. "I don't believe his (Porter's) message is resonating with voters. I don't think the negative ads are working."

But Brad Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., the firm that conducted the poll, said the fact that a higher percentage of voters -- 46 percent -- saw Titus in an unfavorable light compared with 34 percent for Porter might well mean that the negative ads are working.

Coker noted that Porter's ads are much like those Gov. Jim Gibbons used to defeat Titus in her 2006 bid for governor. Those ads often portrayed her as a politician who loved to tax Nevadans.

Coker described more voters viewing Titus unfavorably as "the brightest spot in the poll for Porter."

"It's very unusual for the challenger to have that kind of a negative rating," he said. "Of course, she is well-known."

Porter, who Titus has tried to tie to the highly unpopular President Bush, faces "real problems" in his bid for a fourth term in the House, Coker said.

"Anytime an incumbent is under 50 percent, it's generally a pretty strong sign of vulnerability," Coker said. "This race is clearly a toss up at this stage."

What is particularly surprising at this stage of the campaign, Coker said, is that 13 percent of the registered voters polled are still undecided.

"There may be people who think that neither party has a clue about what to do about the economic situation," Coker said. "Who they break for can mean the election."

Porter, first elected to the House in 2002 and the only congressman the 3rd District has ever known, has been a vocal supporter of the unpopular Iraq war and was the only Nevada member of Congress to vote for the initial $700 billion bill to shore up the nation's economic system.

After that bill failed, Titus said she would not have voted for a bill that didn't provide regulation "to ensure a similar crisis does not happen again." Before his second vote on the successful version of the $700 billion bailout bill, Porter said he stood behind his original vote, stressing that he was trying to prevent further financial collapse.

Herzik said the worsening economy should work in Titus' favor, but said her "caustic wit" has a way of alienating voters.

He recalled how Titus charged that former Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, who ran against her in the Democratic primary for governor, engaged in "pay to play," arguing that a large contribution to Gibson's campaign only poured in after he gave a businessman a "sweetheart deal."

"Her wit may sound good to some of the base, but I suspect it may turn independents off," Herzik said. "Gibson is a Democrat, but I don't remember him really going out and supporting Titus for governor. I've heard she is trying to be more careful."

Herzik said it doesn't work to try to demonize Porter in ads, who he calls a decidedly "low-key nice guy."

"When you meet him, people can't believe he's some mean guy like Tom DeLay," he said.

Like Coker, Damore believes the high percentage of those viewing Titus unfavorably is a "hangover from the gubernatorial campaign. ... She got clobbered on the tax issue."

Damore believes, however, that if the salient issue of the campaign continues to be the economy, "that can only hurt Porter."

In a June poll before Titus won the Democratic primary, voters were asked who they favored in a matchup between Titus and the incumbent. Porter tallied 45 percent, Titus 42 percent, and 13 percent were undecided.

Titus is sure the final poll in November will show her on top.

She said with 36,000 more registered Democrats in the district, she has a distinct advantage.

"I think we're going to get them out to vote," she said.

Contact reporter Paul Harasim at pharasim@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2908.