Debt ceiling compromise

Let's be clear: There are no deep budget cuts in this grand debt ceiling compromise reached over the weekend. Washington will continue as a haven for drunken sailors, albeit the taverns may now close down for 10 minutes each week.

No matter how many times Democrats or their media enablers complain about cuts, keep in mind what that term usually means in Beltwayspeak. A "cut" is often simply a decrease in the projected rate of increase.

While it's true that federal spending in fiscal year 2012 is supposed to be slightly lower than it was in 2011, most domestic spending programs are on autopilot, their baseline budgets scheduled to automatically increase each year unless Congress steps in. This compromise does nothing to address that calculus.

Instead, the deal calls upfront for $900 billion in cuts to be phased in over 10 years, with most of the larger adjustments coming at the end of that period. (Read: probably never.) According to the Congressional Budget Office, next year's cuts would total a paltry $21 billion from projected spending of more than $3.73 trillion -- less than six-tenths of 1 percent!

After this, a 12-member special congressional committee -- three Republicans and three Democrats from each chamber -- is supposed to come up with another $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction by Thanksgiving. That could include more "cuts" or tax hikes or both. Congress would have to vote up or down on the proposal by Christmas -- failing which, another $1.2 trillion in cuts would be triggered in 2013. Entitlements would be exempt from automatic cuts.

The Bronx cheers on both sides of the aisle were immediate. Progressives decried the lack of tax hikes in the plan, but they should face facts. For all the talk from the White House and Democratic leadership about taxing the rich, they don't have the votes -- and that's why Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hasn't even bothered to put a budget, let alone a tax plan, before his house. Putting aside whether confiscating more from the wealthy represents prudent economic policy, it would be a surprise if Sen. Reid could muster more than half his caucus to support massive new tax hikes.

Meantime, many Republicans decried the absence of any real fiscal restraint in this deal. They're right, but it's not all bleak. While spending will continue to climb under this plan -- as will the debt -- at least the trajectory has been reduced somewhat, which over time could be significant. And perhaps this exceedingly modest deal is the best they could do, given that Democrats control both the Senate and White House.

Over the past three decades, Congress has routinely boosted the debt ceiling with minimal debate. At least this time the GOP succeeded in focusing public attention on our looming fiscal train wreck. We shall see whether that success eventually translates into any long-term changes in the way this nation conducts its finances.