Can Democrats find anyone to do the switcheroo?
Southern Nevada‘s Democrats seemingly have more candidates in the 4th Congressional District than there are zombies in "The Walking Dead," but nobody to carry the party‘s banner in the 3rd District in 2016.
So, it‘s a natural question, one being asked in social media by Democrats interested in winning both seats: Couldn‘t they get just one of those 4th District candidates to pull the old switcheroo and run in the 3rd District instead?
But the answer is much more complicated than the question.
First, let‘s start with the number 1,389. That‘s the Democrat advantage over Republicans in active registered voters in the 3rd District, a margin so thin, it makes the registration look like this: 36.9 percent Democrat, 36.5 percent Republican, with 20 percent active nonpartisan voters.
It doesn‘t get much closer than that.
Second, let‘s consider performance: Republicans have outperformed their registration in this district consistently since it was created in 2001, and only one Democrat — the indomitable Dina Titus, with an assist from Barack Obama in 2008 — has ever held the seat. Every other Democrat who’s tried has been defeated.
Third, let‘s look at the new Republican front-runner for the GOP nomination in the now-open 3rd District, state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, R-Henderson. Although Roberson started out as a conservative bomb thrower, he‘s morphed into a moderate. And he‘s much more moderate than the 3rd District‘s incumbent, Rep. Joe Heck, who’s giving up the seat to run for U.S. Senate next year.
Roberson was instrumental in passing Gov. Brian Sandoval’s education reforms and the tax package needed to pay for them, which is excellent general-election fodder. He also helped keep bills favored by the right, including one allowing concealed-weapons permit holders to bring guns onto college campuses, from reaching the governor‘s desk.
It will be hard for a Democrat to beat Roberson. In fact, the Democrats‘ only real hope lies in the Republican primary, where two conservative candidates who‘ve never managed to seal the deal with voters are challenging Roberson for the 3rd District nomination. If Danny Tarkanian and Dr. Annette Teijiero can force Roberson to spend time and money winning the primary, it increases the odds for a Democrat to succeed in the general election.
But who will that Democrat be? State Senate Minority Leader Aaron Ford, D-Las Vegas, was courted but said no. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller has been asked, but he isn’t likely to make a bid -- he wants to be governor.
Which leaves us with the candidates in the 4th District, where the numbers are much kinder to Democrats. There are nearly 31,000 more active registered Democrats than Republicans, and GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy barely won the seat in 2014, besting former Rep. Steven Horsford by just 3,622 votes out of more than 130,000 cast.
Ex-Assembly Speaker John Oceguera certainly isn‘t going to switch from the 4th to the 3rd; he ran in the 3rd District in 2012 and lost. State Sen. Ruben Kihuen of Las Vegas was the first Democrat to announce for the 4th District and has raised a respectable amount of money. Philanthropist Susie Lee has been courted to switch, but she seems disinclined -- and she‘s the top fundraiser in the primary so far. And former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores badly lost every county in the 4th District and Clark County in her 2014 bid for lieutenant governor. She‘s going to struggle no matter which district she chooses.
So while it might appear to be a simple transaction on paper, inducing a 4th District candidate — or any Democrat, for that matter — to jump into the 3rd District is going to be a lot harder than it seems.
Steve Sebelius is a Las Vegas Review-Journal political columnist. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 702-387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.
