RUBEN NAVARRETTE JR.: Latinos aren’t becoming Republicans, but they will vote for one

How are Latinos likely to vote in next year’s presidential election?

I’ve been asked that question a lot lately during interviews on television, podcasts and radio shows. My answer is always the same: It’s complicated.

A recent poll by the Spanish-language television network Univision is not going to simplify things much. Billed as the largest bipartisan primary poll of Latinos thus far in the 2024 election cycle, the survey says that in a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, President Biden is favored by 58 percent of Latino voters, compared with 31 percent who back Trump. Eleven percent are undecided and thus up for grabs.

For a Democrat, those numbers are terrible. In his 1996 re-election, Bill Clinton got 72 percent of the Latino vote. In 2012, Barack Obama got about the same level of support — 71 percent. Biden can’t even pull down 60 percent when he’s squaring off against one of the most anti-Latino presidents in U.S. history.

The question about how Latinos are going to vote often comes from a liberal host worried that Latinos will defect from the Democratic Party — where they’ve had a home since the “Viva Kennedy” clubs of the 1960 election — and look to the GOP. That’s despite the fact that Republicans find it difficult to be tough on immigrants and refugees without sounding nativist. According to a November 2022 tracking poll by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, nearly 30 percent of Latinos see the GOP as “hostile” to them. With every 2024 Republican debate, don’t be surprised if that number goes up.

Other times, the inquiry comes from a conservative host hopeful that Republicans — some of whom have decent showings with Latinos — might peel off additional support as more Latino voters realize that the Democratic Party ignores, manipulates and deceives them. Democrats make it seem as if Latinos have no choice but to vote for them, because so many Republicans are so awful. Then there is the Democrats’ signature: condescending insults. When some Latinos do vote Republican, the Democrats’ response is not to look in the mirror but to claim that Latinos were gullible enough to get snookered by “misinformation.”

Latinos don’t vote as a bloc, nor do they speak as a monolith. Both parties make mistakes that hurt them with this population, and neither party serves Latinos well.

I’ve written about the mythical creature known as the “Latino vote” for nearly 35 years, and I usually start by explaining why Latino voters have such outsize importance at the ballot box.

There are four reasons: youth, location, voter participation and a tendency to “swing” between the parties.

■ Youth. In 2020, roughly 1 in 4 (25.7 percent) children in the United States was Latino. That same year, the Latino population had a median age of 30, according to U.S. census figures. For non-Latinos, the median age was 41.1. At the risk of agitating white supremacists who worry about being “replaced,” let’s give a nod to the obvious: Latinos are the future of America.

■ Location. According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the 2024 presidential race could be decided by four states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. Latinos make up 30.7 percent of the population in Arizona and 28.7 percent in Nevada, according to census figures. From 2010 to 2020, the Latino population in Georgia grew by 31.6 percent. In Wisconsin, it increased by 33.1 percent.

■ Participation. The 16.6 million Latinos who voted in the 2020 presidential election represented an increase of 30.9 percent over turnout in 2016, according to the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative. Among voters of all races, turnout was 15.9 percent greater.

■ The “swing” factor. Latinos are scared off by extremes in both parties. They are liberal Republicans or conservative Democrats. Consequently, Latinos — who are still more likely to vote Democratic than Republican, by a 2-to-1 margin — are not going to flock to the GOP. But a big chunk of them, between 30 percent and 40 percent, will cross party lines on occasion.

The Republicans who get Latino support tend to be moderate. Yet at least one appears to be mad.

With Trump poised to get as much as 40 percent of the Latino vote in next year’s election, Democrats shouldn’t just be alarmed. They should be terrified. So should the rest of the country.

It’s time for Democrats to do right by Latinos. Actually, it might already be too late.

Ruben Navarrette’s email address is crimscribe@icloud.com. His podcast, “Ruben in the Center,” is available through every podcast app.