All signs point to Steelers

In his NFL career, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 10-0 in Ohio. Barring a major surprise, he will add to that mark today.

The Steelers, 4-1 and off a bye week, figure to roll over the 0-6 Cincinnati Bengals, who are without injured quarterback Carson Palmer.

Veteran handicapper Kelso Sturgeon is backing Pittsburgh as a 91/2-point favorite, but he said he's more interested in two key players who will be missing for the Steelers -- running back Willie Parker and nose tackle Casey Hampton.

Parker has missed the past two games with a sprained left knee, and coach Mike Tomlin is holding him out.

"The NFL season is nearing the halfway point, and the edges that improved one's position a point or two are for the most part a thing of the past," said Sturgeon (kelsosports handicapping.com). "What you see is what you get, and since bookmakers, linemakers and bettors all have access to the same data and information, the search for any tiny thing that might give one the best of it is a thing to be treasured.

"One must look for the hidden element that might produce an edge, and many times it comes in what coaches do not say but express by their actions. We have just that situation in this game. The Steelers are obviously confident they can win without at least two key starters, Parker and Hampton, and both are off the injury list and ready to play.

"Up next are the New York Giants, and it's obvious Tomlin wants these two starters at their best for that game. He has no intention of risking re-injury against such a weak opponent, and that sends us a silent and serious message that he thinks Cincinnati is as bad as it looks and can be manhandled by backup players."

The Steelers have won their past seven games in Cincinnati. The Bengals will start inexperienced Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Palmer.

"I use 42 different steps to analyze an NFL game, and seldom does a team grade out on top in even 30 of them," Sturgeon said. "In this game, Pittsburgh grades out on top in 41 of the categories while Cincinnati is tops on one -- the home field."

Sturgeon analyzes the rest of today's Week 7 schedule:

• Tennessee (-81/2) at Kansas City: The 5-0 Titans are playing a Chiefs team that brings little more to the field than warm bodies. Kansas City (1-4) has no offense -- 127 yards in its last game, a 34-0 loss at Carolina -- and the fourth-worst defense in the NFL that allows 391.6 yards per game. The Chiefs will be without leading rusher Larry Johnson and will bring back quarterback Brodie Croyle from injury. The Titans are no offensive dynamo, but they can move the ball on this defense, and one must not lose sight of the fact they are all about defense, giving up 11.2 points per game. Send it in on the Titans.

• San Diego at Buffalo (-1): Any way one slices this pie, it's a tough call. San Diego (3-3) has been severely compromised this season because of a painful toe injury that has all but ground running back LaDainian Tomlinson to a halt. He has averaged 3.4 yards per carry in his last two games, but he will play even though he's still hurting, and backup Darren Sproles will be operating on a sore ankle. That leaves the Chargers' chances riding on the arm of quarterback Philip Rivers. Buffalo (4-1), coming off a bye, is a well-coached team and has a nasty defense that should be able to stop San Diego's one-dimensional game. A modest play on the Bills.

• Baltimore at Miami (-21/2): We can make this one short and sweet. I bet against every rookie quarterback in all of his road games, and this time we have Joe Flacco, nine months removed from Delaware, starting for the Ravens (2-3). Flacco is struggling, but Baltimore has no intention of taking him out in favor of Troy Smith. The Dolphins (2-3) are dramatically improved and should have the firepower to score enough against an outstanding Ravens defense to get the money.

• Dallas (-7) at St. Louis: I will take a pass on this one. It's uncertain whether the Cowboys (4-2) will have starting quarterback Tony Romo, who has a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand, or immobile backup Brad Johnson under center. There's no law that says one has to bet them all, and I will pass.

• Minnesota at Chicago (-3): This game is another tough call. The Vikings roll into Soldier Field at 3-3 and have won three of their past four. The Bears (3-3) have not been able to finish this season and would be 6-0 had they accomplished that. Their three losses have come by a total of eight points. There is no edge in this one for either the side or the total (371/2), so I'll pass.

• New Orleans at Carolina (-3): Saints quarterback Drew Brees is playing lights-out football and in five of six games has passed for more than 320 yards. This week he gets his best receiver, Marques Colston, back from injury and now has another weapon. Also returning from the injury list for the Saints will be tight end Jeremy Shockey, and he makes the playing field even wider. New Orleans (3-3) is the best team in this game, and the Saints getting three is a big bonus.

• San Francisco at New York Giants (-101/2): Many handicapping factors are in play in this game -- the bounce-back factor is in play for the Giants (4-1), the offense-versus-defense factor and the fact San Francisco (2-4) does not have a legitimate quarterback. It is obvious the Giants went into Cleveland last week looking for a cakewalk and got their butts kicked. They should bounce back. The Giants' offense leads the NFL in yards per game (419.4) and in rushing yards per game (181.2) and is facing a 49ers defense ranked 26th of 32 teams. As for the quarterback factor, it's Eli Manning against J.T. O'Sullivan, and it is an absolute mismatch. The Giants should rock and roll.

• Detroit at Houston (-9): The Texans are 1-4 straight up and against the spread. The Lions are 0-5 and 1-4 against the spread. There is no good reason to get involved.

• New York Jets (-3) at Oakland: My figures say the Jets (3-2) are not as good as their record and the Raiders have not hit their bottom. There are too many things not to like about this game, but if I used it, the only side I could play would be the Jets.

• Cleveland at Washington (-71/2): Expect a defensive battle, and my play will be on the total, going under 42. Cleveland (2-3) got it together Monday night and blasted the Giants 35-14, but that is the only big-scoring game the Browns have had this season. You have to show me twice that you can put points on the board before I might believe. Both of these teams have a ton of injuries that will compromise their offenses, and my money will be on the under.

• Indianapolis (-1) at Green Bay: A sub-par Colts team faces an unpredictable Packers squad. The one reliable element is Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning and the team's passing game, and that tilts the edge to Indianapolis. If I play this game, it will be modestly and with caution.

• Seattle at Tampa Bay (-101/2): There is no edge the Buccaneers (4-2) do not have in this game. The Seahawks (1-4) have been riddled with injuries at quarterback and wide receiver and have seen their offense, then their defense, break down because of it. Seattle has the 31st-ranked passing attack in the league and the 27th-ranked defense. Tampa Bay appears ready to play its best game and has been deadly at home this season.

Compiled by Review-Journal sportswriter Matt Youmans.