2018 NFL betting breakdown: Week 15

Scott Kellen, Sixthsensesports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Dolphins (7-6) at Vikings (6-6-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -7½, 44½

Analysis: The Dolphins are off their “Miami Miracle” win last week over New England. Minnesota has a new offensive coordinator after looking awful in its 21-7 defeat at Seattle on Monday night. The Vikings have played three of their last four games on the road against Chicago, New England and Seattle. Now they’re home, where they are still a tough out. They face a Miami team that has struggled on the road.

By the numbers: Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. It has allowed 24 or more points in 10 of those games and scored 17 or fewer in seven of those games. … Mike Zimmer is 15-3-1 ATS as a home favorite against nondivisional teams.

Pick: Vikings 25, Dolphins 16

Raiders (3-10) at Bengals (5-8)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Bengals -3, 45½

Analysis: Oakland is off its best win of the season over the Steelers last week as 10-point home underdogs. The Bengals were a tough out in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week but have lost five straight and seven of eight. It’s an early East Coast start time for the Raiders. Cincinnati has lost its best receiver, best tight end and starting quarterback. Since that string of injuries started in Week 4, it has won only one game by more than three points.

By the numbers: Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in 12 games. … Oakland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog and has topped 20 points in two of those games.

Pick: Bengals 23, Raiders 21

Buccaneers (5-8) at Ravens (7-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -7½, 46½

Analysis: Lamar Jackson lost his first start since taking over for Joe Flacco last week in Kansas City, but the Ravens were competitive against one of the NFL’s best teams. For the fifth straight week, Jackson will face a below average run defense in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers come off three straight home games in which they went 2-1.

By the numbers: Tampa Bay has lost 12 of its last 13 games straight up as road underdogs while allowing at least 26 points in 12 of those games. They’ve allowed at least 34 points in each road game this season. … The Ravens have scored 23 or more points at home in 13 of their last 14 games as home favorites. … The over is 10-2 in the Bucs’ last 12 games as road underdogs.

Pick: Ravens 29, Buccaneers 23

Cowboys (8-5) at Colts (7-6)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Colts -3, 47½

Analysis: Dallas all but wrapped up the NFC East last week with its OT victory over Philadelphia. Does this game mean something to the Cowboys? Sure, but don’t expect them to play anyone who is limping around. They have the playoffs to prepare for, so there’s not much upside to playing anyone who is banged up. Guard Zach Martin is a perfect candidate to rest this week. The Colts continue to press on, as their offense has been rolling since Week 6, when they started to get healthy on offense. They’ve won each of their last four home starts.

By the numbers: Dallas is on a 12-4 under run as a road underdog, and the the Colts are on a 13-5 under streak as home favorites.

Pick: Colts 24, Cowboys 20

Lions (5-8) at Bills (4-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bills -2½, 39½

Analysis: Detroit defeated an Arizona team in the desert last week that had a bad offense, a rookie quarterback and a good defense. Now they get the better version of that Arizona team in Buffalo. The Bills sport a better offense, a better rookie quarterback and a superior defense in a much tougher environment. Detroit’s offense has disappeared since trading WR Golden Tate and losing WR Marvin Jones and guard T.J. Lang to injuries. And now QB Matthew Stafford is trying to play through an injury. Buffalo comes off two straight losses in games it controlled from the line of scrimmage against the Dolphins and Jets.

By the numbers: The Bills have gone 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites, and the over is 11-3 in those games. … Detroit hasn’t scored more than 22 points in its last seven games, and the only time it scored 22 was when it scored two meaningless TDs late in a blowout loss to Chicago.

Pick: Bills 22, Lions 18

Packers (5-7-1) at Bears (9-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bears -5½, 45

Analysis: Green Bay comes off its first game and victory since Mike McCarthy was fired. But it beat lowly Atlanta and averaged 4.5 yards per pass. The Bears are off a dominant defensive performance in Sunday’s 15-6 win over the high-flying Rams, who were denied a touchdown for the first time under Sean McVay. The Packers’ offensive line is banged up and expected to be without tackle Bryan Bulaga, who would have faced Khalil Mack.

By the numbers: Green Bay has lost eight straight games on the road and has allowed 23 or more points in 20 of its last 24 road games. … The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites, including 5-0 this season. They’ve scored 24 or more in all five games as home favorites.

Pick: Bears 27, Packers 17

Titans (7-6) at Giants (5-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Titans -1, 43½

Analysis: The Giants have won four of five games since their bye week allowed them to make changes to their offense. The question is how good are they after defeating San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Chicago with Chase Daniel and Washington with Mark Sanchez. The Titans have struggled on the road, but their best performance came after their bye week. They aren’t off their bye week, but are off a Thursday night game with extra time to prepare. Still, this line has moved too much for my liking, and WR Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the Giants.

By the numbers: The Titans are 5-14-1 ATS as road favorites in their last 20 tries.

Pick: Giants 23, Titans 21

Redskins (6-7) at Jaguars (4-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jaguars -7½, 36½

Analysis: It doesn’t get much more exciting than this. Cody Kessler versus Josh Johnson at quarterback.

By the numbers: As a home favorite, Jacksonville has held six of its last nine opponents to 12 points or fewer.

Pick: Jaguars 20, Redskins 10

Cardinals (3-10) at Falcons (4-9)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -10, 44

Analysis: This is a matchup of two teams just trying to finish out the season. Atlanta has lost five straight and faces an Arizona team that has been decimated by injuries on the offensive line.

By the numbers: Washington is the only team that Atlanta has defeated by more than 10 points. … The Falcons have failed to top 20 points in their last five games. … Atlanta is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite, having allowed 20 or more points in each of those games. … Arizona’s defense has helped it cover two double-digit underdog roles on the road.

Pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 20

Seahawks (8-5) at 49ers (3-10)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Seahawks -3½, 44

Analysis: Seattle is in a similar spot as Dallas in that it has just about wrapped up a playoff spot, and the Seahawks can’t win their division. The games matter, but they won’t risk putting a dinged up player on the field. The Seahawks have dominated this series, but the Niners can compete if they avoid turnovers, which have killed them all season. Weather probably will have an impact with rain and wind.

By the numbers: Seattle has run the ball more than 55 percent of the time since Week 3. … The Seahawks are on a 3-6-1 spread skid as road favorites. The under is 7-3 in those games. … The 49ers are on a 16-8 under streak as home underdogs.

Pick: Seahawks 21, 49ers 20

Patriots (9-4) at Steelers (7-5-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Patriots -2½, 54

Analysis: Both teams come off losses. Pittsburgh has lost three in a row and is facing a potential five-game losing streak with a loss here and next week at New Orleans. The Steelers already have lost at home to the Chiefs, Ravens and Chargers.

By the numbers: Since 2003, the Patriots are 19-0 ATS on the road as a favorite of fewer than five points or an underdog. … Pittsburgh is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog. But its last two losses have come against New England.

Pick: Steelers 27, Patriots 24

Eagles (6-7) at Rams (11-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Rams -13, 52½

Analysis: Nick Foles will start for Philadelphia. He came into the game for an injured Carson Wentz at the Rams last season and ultimately led Philadelphia to the Super Bowl title. But that’s not likely this season. Foles was awful in his two starts at the beginning of the season, averaging 4.9 yards per pass. The Rams are smarting off a loss to the Bears.

By the numbers: Philadelphia is on a 4-7 ATS slide as a road underdog, and the over is 8-2-1 in those games. The Eagles have allowed 23 or more points in 10 straight games as road underdogs. … The Rams have scored at least 29 points in eight of their 12 games as home favorites under Sean McVay.

Pick: Rams 33, Eagles 20

Saints (11-2) at Panthers (6-7)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Saints -6½, 50½

Analysis: The Saints will be playing their third straight road game. Carolina comes home on a five-game losing streak after a stretch of four road games in five weeks. The Panthers are 5-1 straight up at home, with the loss by three points against Seattle.

By the numbers: The Saints are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games as favorites of at least six points. … Carolina is on a 5-1 cover run as a home underdog.

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 24

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