Betting value lies with 10-1 Hamlin, not Earnhardt, in Daytona 500

Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowl titles in the NFL and has won four NASCAR Sprint Cup championships, but his team hasn't won a Daytona 500 in 23 years, and his manufacturer, Toyota, never has won the race. But based on recent history in plate races and action during Daytona speedweeks, Gibbs might have his best chance to end the drought today.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is favored, but as a group, the five Gibbs' Toyotas appear to have an edge. Not only have they shown great speed on the 2.5-mile high-banked layout individually, but they also look to be the major force in the draft.

Gibbs driver Denny Hamlin never has won a points-paying race at Daytona, but he did win the Sprint Unlimited on Saturday for the third time in his career. He's averaged a 3.75 finish in his past four Daytona starts, and not much has changed with the restrictor-plate package other than a 10-horsepower boost from a slightly larger hole in the plates.

Perhaps the only reason Hamlin didn't win one of the Cam-Am Duels qualifying races Thursday was because he didn't have any teammates in the first race, won by Earnhardt Jr. In the second race, a Gibbs driver — reigning Cup champion Kyle Busch — won, and teammate Carl Edwards was fourth. The other Gibbs' star, two-time Daytona 500 winner Matt Kenseth, will start from the front row.

Let's go with Hamlin, in a contract year, to win the most prized trophy in NASCAR. He at least has the best chance to win when coupled with odds value at 10-1.

Who could ruin the Gibbs party? Since this is the most volatile type of racing in NASCAR, and the cars are more equal with plates on, up to 33 others could win.

Earnhardt has won three of the past eight plate races, but bettors aren't getting the proper odds because of his inflated popularity tax. William Hill sports books have taken 15 percent of their bets on Earnhardt and have him at 5-1. The Westgate lists him at 4-1.

So from a value standpoint, Earnhardt doesn't provide much. As for his ability, no one is better — 10 plate wins during his career.

Jimmie Johnson (10-1) obviously will be a helpful teammate for Earnhardt, but there's certainly a drop-off from the rest of the team with Kasey Kahne (25-1), who has never won a plate race, and rookie Chase Elliott (25-1), who will start from the pole.

The other major player is Team Penske, featuring last year's winner in Joey Logano (8-1). A back-to-back winner hasn't occurred since 1995 with Sterling Marlin, but Logano gave every indication during practices and races that he'll be just as tenacious as last season in plate races. He won two of the four plate races last season. In the second practice session last week, Logano led Penske Fords to the three fastest speeds. He'll have some great help drafting with him.

William Hill has Elliott's finish position at 15.5 and paired in a driver matchup with Martin Truex Jr. (minus-125). Elliott is the youngest driver to win the Daytona pole, but it would be an upset if he ran in the top 10 for most of the race. Bet over 15.5 and lay minus-125 on Truex Jr. for the better finish.

Other finish position selections: Harvick under 9.5 (even), Hamlin under 10.5 (minus-120), Danica Patrick over 20.5 (minus-110).

Another attractive play is under 14.5 drivers to lead a lap. It's really hard to pass, so look for the same driver to lead for long stretches. Last year's Daytona 500 had 12 lap leaders.

— Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him: @MicahRoberts7