Cautious approach advised for Daytona

Picking the winner of the Daytona 500 is not as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack. But it won’t be easy, either, and the only definite is that Kevin Harvick is the betting favorite.

In what figures to be an unpredictable race, as NASCAR adjusts to new racecars in today’s season opener, handicapper Micah Roberts advises bettors to stay conservative when wagering on drivers to win and propositions.

Roberts has various wagers on eight drivers, including Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch, each at 12-1 odds. But he is not betting on Harvick, the 10-1 favorite at some Las Vegas sports books. Odds vary at sports books, with the LVH generally offering the fairest prices.

“The best strategy when betting Daytona 500 props is to go about your business the same way you would for Super Bowl props,” said Roberts, a former sports book director who writes for The Linemakers on SportingNews.com.

“For the Super Bowl, the best way to roll successfully is by having a lean to the game and good reasons why. For the Baltimore Ravens to be successful, chances were that quarterback Joe Flacco would have to perform well, and the offshoot of that thought was that his receiving corps would be beneficiaries. The books offered plenty of propositions that allowed bettors to follow that plan and bet accordingly. The same thing applies to betting Daytona props.

“The first thing to do is identify who is likely to have the best car. In this case, I like the Joe Gibbs cars with Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, and will look to wager on them in a few props offered such as matchups, manufacturer to win, winning car number and over-under finish positions. The Gibbs cars stood out from the beginning of the Daytona preseason test session in January, and nothing has changed much to make me think otherwise.

“Between the new Gen-6 car and the always volatile nature of Daytona, I wouldn’t advise betting the normal unit play. Stay cautious, just like the drivers will be today. The logic and thinking that go into finding a driver to win, usually based on past performances and practices, don’t hold up as well at Daytona as they might for races at Phoenix or Las Vegas. All it takes is for one driver to slip up, and then he or she takes out 15 other innocent drivers.”

Anticipating a conservative race, for the most part, Roberts recommends betting under 9½ total cautions. Roberts also is betting finish position props on Kenseth, last year’s Daytona winner, and Busch, taking Kenseth under 10½ and Busch under 12½ at the LVH.

Another prop to play, Roberts said, is on the winning car number to be between 1 and 23.

“All the Joe Gibbs car are in this category, which is great, but what’s even better is getting Tony Stewart’s No. 14, Jamie McMurray’s No. 1, Brad Keselowski’s No. 2, Kasey Kahne’s No. 5, Clint Bowyer’s No. 15, Greg Biffle’s No. 16, Ricky Stenhouse’s No. 17 and Joey Logano’s No. 22,” Roberts said.

Roberts recommends betting pole winner Danica Patrick over a finish position of 21½.

“I would be very surprised if she finished better than 28th here in the big leagues,” he said.