Factors point to Patriots letdown

It's tough to find a weakness in Bill Belichick's game, but the New England Patriots coach does have a flaw aside from losing Super Bowls to the New York Giants.

Belichick has been brutal as a double-digit favorite — 1-8 against the spread in his past nine games in that role. The Patriots typically go flat in the letdown spots on their schedule, and they are in another one today as 13½-point home favorites over Jacksonville. The line is 14 at a few Las Vegas sports books.

"While there have been some wild gyrations in the first two weeks of the NFL season, there has been one constant — New England's ongoing excellence," The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said. "Yet, if the Patriots play to recent form, they also do not figure to have an easy time against an improved Jacksonville side.

"Why? Consider that Belichick has been poor as double-digit chalk lately. This is also the Dr. Phil psychology game of the week, as the Patriots are off a couple of emotionally draining games to begin the season, first the high-profile opener versus the Steelers and then the well-publicized challenge of Rex Ryan and upstart Buffalo in the AFC East."

After next week's bye, Tom Brady and the Patriots have a bigger game on deck at Dallas.

The Jaguars are off an upset victory over Miami, a game in which second-year quarterback Blake Bortles turned in one of his top performances.

"Reports of Jacksonville upgrades were confirmed last week in the win over the Dolphins, with the rapidly maturing Bortles converting several big plays," Marshall said. "With the Jags apparently beyond pushover status, they are unlikely to be embarrassed, and recent performance patterns suggest the host Patriots are dealing with the sort of flat spot that has been a significant point-spread negative for them the past few years.

"With a spread hovering around two touchdowns, Jacksonville has enough cushion to warrant a strong recommendation."

Marshall (Goldsheet.com) analyzes the rest of today's Week 3 lineup:

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (Pick): We have seen alarming performances out of the gate for the Rams defense, which surrendered 31 points in the opener versus Seattle and allowed the Redskins to run almost at will. Now they face a Steelers arsenal that welcomes back running back Le'Veon Bell from suspension. Can Nick Foles trade points with Ben Roethlisberger? The preference is Pittsburgh, with a concurrent nod over the total of 48.

San Diego at Minnesota (-2½): Some wonder if Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner's new pupil, Teddy Bridgewater, has enough arm strength to properly trigger his offense. Until further notice, the Vikings' attack will center on Adrian Peterson, whose 134 yards rushing last week against Detroit took some pressure off of Bridgewater. Yet if the Chargers can keep Peterson relatively contained, Philip Rivers is very capable of outscoring Bridgewater, so this is a lean to San Diego.

Tampa Bay at Houston (-6½): How many F-bombs has coach Bill O'Brien dropped behind closed doors after the Texans' 0-2 start? The pre-emptive move to Ryan Mallett at quarterback was a bit surprising, but Houston appears a better alternative than the Buccaneers and Jameis Winston, who this week is dealing with an angry Texans defense and J.J. Watt after facing the troubled Saints last week.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets (-2): This is a full test of the contrarian theory, maybe the best case that can be offered for the Eagles after their offense cratered last week at home against Dallas. The new-look Jets defense appears airtight, but we remain unconvinced about quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has not been able to sustain error-free efforts in the past. With the total at 45½, we will first look under and also risk a lesser contrarian vote on Philadelphia in what normally would figure as a bounce-back effort after the Dallas fiasco.

New Orleans at Carolina (-8): Good fortune continues for Carolina, which has faced Blake Bortles and Ryan Mallett and now gets served Saints backup quarterback Luke McCown. New Orleans is deeply troubled, but laying points with a limited Panthers offense is risky. Cam Newton must do a lot more with his legs due to one of the league's thinnest wide receiver corps. There might be a bit more value in the Saints now that the price has risen due to Drew Brees' absence.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-2½): It's only September, but this has a must-win feel for the 0-2 Ravens, especially with an extremely challenging schedule to come. Minus linebacker Terrell Suggs, and with Joe Flacco's receiving targets less than stellar, Baltimore is at least back at M&T Bank Stadium, where it is 35-7 straight up since 2010. History suggests Andy Dalton's mistake-free beginning (five touchdown passes and no interceptions) is unlikely to endure for Cincinnati. In win-or-else mode, we prefer desperate Baltimore.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3½): Surprise, surprise, the winner of this game will be 2-1. This is a measured vote for the upgraded Raiders, who have surrounded quarterback Derek Carr with some legit targets — new wideouts Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 26 catches the first two weeks. The Browns return to Josh McCown at quarterback after Johnny Manziel's surprisingly effective work last week could present an unwelcome controversy for a dysfunctional franchise.

Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee: While the Colts have not looked good, they have faced a couple of rugged defenses, and Andrew Luck's career has been sprinkled with occasional puzzling efforts and lopsided defeats. In the past, Luck has usually recovered. The Titans will continue to be a work in progress with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Colts have won seven in a row in this series and should bounce back.

Atlanta (-1) at Dallas: The clouds have suddenly parted for the Falcons, with a favorable early schedule that has unfurled in front of them like a magic carpet. Atlanta catches the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, and we have seen how the Dallas offense looked in the recent past with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. With a pair of gutty wins, the Falcons seem to be responding positively to new coach Dan Quinn, and the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones combo has been the NFL's most lethal the past two weeks. It's not too late to get on the Atlanta bandwagon, which is gaining momentum.

San Francisco at Arizona (-6½): As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy, there is no reason the Cardinals can't keep winning. Palmer is unbeaten in his past eight starts. Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers do not yet appear equipped to play from behind. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in Palmer's past 11 starts, so go with Arizona.

Chicago at Seattle (-14½): Sometimes the big-spread games appear to be a trap, but not necessarily this one, as hungry Seattle returns home after losing its first two on the road in bitter fashion. Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor has ended his holdout, removing that distraction. At this stage, Jay Cutler's absence might not be a negative for the Bears, as Jimmy Clausen could prove a rallying point, but early efforts suggest coach John Fox still has a lot of work to do with a leaky Chicago defense. In this case, it is not an especially big risk to lay the big price with the Seahawks.

Buffalo at Miami (-3): Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor made mistakes against the Patriots, but Taylor and the offense did fight back in the fourth quarter. The Buffalo defense has proven a difficult matchup lately for Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Joe Philbin era appears to be heading for a bad ending in Miami, so this is a measured vote for coach Rex Ryan as an underdog.

Denver (-3) at Detroit: Many Broncos fans were scratching their heads this week when new coach Gary Kubiak announced he was not going to be altering an offense that has mostly misfired with Peyton Manning taking snaps under center instead of in the shotgun. Among other issues, Manning is too slow at this stage to operate as an old-fashioned dropback QB. Detroit, however, has been unconvincing, and the big-play Denver defense looks to be the best unit on the field by a good margin. That should be enough to keep this under 44½ at Ford Field.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Review-Journal