Falcons impressive, but side with Redskins getting TD on road

Fading the Atlanta Falcons, who have won and covered all four games, has been a bad idea. Matt Ryan is triggering one of the NFL's top offenses, and wide receiver Julio Jones is proving nearly unstoppable.

The Falcons are scoring 34.3 points per game. Only New England and Arizona are scoring more.

"What's not to like about the Falcons? They are finally the team we thought they would be the past two seasons," said Micah Roberts, an analyst for "The Linemakers" on SportingNews.com and a former Las Vegas sports book director. "But let's not get too crazy here."

The Falcons are favored by 7 to 7½ points over Washington today, and Roberts is recommending a play on the road 'dog. The Redskins rank No. 4 in the league in total defense, allowing 288 yards per game.

"The Redskins have a very underrated defense," Roberts said. "You would be hard-pressed to say Atlanta is three points better than Washington on a neutral field, so being able to get 7½ makes this a good play. True, the Redskins aren't sexy, and you'll probably cringe if betting them, but laying Atlanta's high price just isn't a smart bet."

Washington's offense leads the NFL in time of possession and rushing (139.5 yards per game). Alfred Morris is the Redskins' top rusher with 261 yards, and Matt Jones has added 200. Atlanta ranks No. 27 in total defense.

"There are three teams heading into Week 5 that are undefeated and sport 4-0 records against the spread. Just about every bettor knows those teams are the Falcons, Packers and Bengals," Roberts said. "The bookmakers added a popularity tax to the point spread, on top of what the true rating is after home-field advantage is factored in.

"The big question is whether or not you feel like laying an inflated number just because a team looks outstanding so far. Most people don't care and will lay whatever the number is on popular teams, which is why the books always win in the long run. Things always go in cycles in the NFL, so no team is ever as good as its high rating and no team is ever as bad as its low rating."

Roberts (@MicahRoberts7 on Twitter) breaks down the rest of today's Week 5 schedule:

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (-3): I'm not overly thrilled with this game, but I took the Jaguars just because of my perceived value of getting plus-3, the key number in the NFL. Are these teams really equal? And is the Tampa Bay home crowd really worth a field goal? I don't believe so on either account. I like Blake Bortles with the Jacksonville offense much better than Jameis Winston, a shaky rookie quarterback in a major learning process.

Buffalo (-1) at Tennessee: Under first-year coach Rex Ryan, the Bills have been worse on defense, and that's a concern. But I still think Buffalo is the better team, and its defense will do some things to confuse rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota. I'll go with the Bills.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6½): The Ravens have not covered a game — their win at Pittsburgh was a push — but this is one of those teams of which you still want to respect the past. The Browns defense has been horrendous, allowing 406.3 yards per game to rank last in the league, and there might be value in laying less than a touchdown. But I still have some skepticism until I see four good quarters out of Baltimore. No play.

Chicago at Kansas City (-9½): Bears fans must be thrilled to see quarterback Jay Cutler finally come through late in a win last week while also showing some emotion. Kansas City fans are wondering who these Chiefs (1-3) are with a poor defense and an offense going more to the air than the ground. I can't lay such a big price with the Chiefs, but I don't want the Bears, either. The total might be the way to go, so look over 45 with both defenses allowing 31.3 points per game.

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-5): Who are these Eagles? And can we say Saints quarterback Drew Brees' value to the line is half of what it was just a year ago? Philadelphia's supposedly high-powered offense (294 yards per game) still has not put a game over the total. Each week I've thought, "This is the week the Eagles are going to bust out," but it doesn't happen. New Orleans is no bargain, but I'll take the points because Philadelphia has trouble covering at home (11-25-1 ATS in its past 37).

St. Louis at Green Bay (-9½): This should get to minus-10, so I'll wait and take the Rams when it does. Aaron Rodgers is amazing, and the Packers have covered all four games. Still, the San Francisco defense did a lot of good things last week to slow Rodgers. The St. Louis defense is just as capable. I'll take correlation plays with the Rams plus-10 — if it gets there — and under 46½.

Seattle at Cincinnati (-3): What happened here? Last week at the Westgate, the Seahawks were minus-2½. Running back Marshawn Lynch is out, but this new number is telling us these teams are equal, and I'm not buying it. I love what the Bengals have done by covering every number placed in front of them. But Seattle's defense (278.8 yards per game) always has been the driving force behind its rating, which still is top-3 in the NFL. Look for the Seahawks to come up with a stellar defensive performance and get the win. The plays are Seattle and under 43½.

Arizona (-3) at Detroit: This is a rough spot for the Lions, who are on a short week after playing a physical Seattle defense on the road. Even with the Cardinals' loss last week, their average score is 37-18 through four games. A West Coast team traveling east but getting to play at its regular time (1 p.m. Pacific) gives me a little more confidence in siding with Arizona. The Cardinals are for real and will be serious contenders in the NFC, so I'll recommend laying 2½ if that's still available.

New England (-9) at Dallas: Oddsmaker Kenny White tells me this is too many points to give to a home team that can run with Joseph Randle behind a great offensive line. South Point sports book director Bert Osborne tells me bettors are taking the Patriots at a 16-to-1 ratio on parlays. So now I'm definitely taking the points, but only at plus-10, a number likely to show by game time. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the past 17 occasions when getting 3½ to 10 points. This will be closer than most think.

Denver (-4½) at Oakland: The Broncos have won seven straight (6-0-1 ATS) over the Raiders, but this home game presents a nice opportunity for Oakland. Denver's defense has been outstanding, but the aging Peyton Manning is not what we're used to seeing, which makes the Broncos vulnerable in most road games. I look for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to have a big game, with Manning playing catch-up. Give me the points with Oakland, and I'll go over 43½.

San Francisco at New York Giants (-7): The 49ers, who have covered one of their past 10 games, have been outscored by an average of 45-12 in two road games. Eli Manning has had an outstanding first four games with only one interception, but I still see value with San Francisco getting 7 or 7½. The Giants are not four points better than the 49ers on a neutral field, but that's what the line is indicating.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Las Vegas Review-Journal