Jazz favored to win NBA Summer League, but Nets could surprise

The Utah Jazz finished last season with the worst record in the NBA at 17-65.

But they are showing positive signs this summer. The Jazz went 3-0 in the Salt Lake City Summer League and closed as consensus 6-1 favorites to win the Las Vegas Summer League, which started Thursday and runs through July 20 at the Thomas & Mack Center and Cox Pavilion.

“Their rotation is almost like their regular team’s rotation, minus a few guys, with Ace Bailey, their prized No. 5 pick,” Westgate SuperBook NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.

The Jazz, who play the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, were led in Salt Lake City by third-year player Brice Sensabaugh, who had a 37-point game; second-year players Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski and Cody Williams; and Bailey and fellow first-round draft pick Walter Clayton Jr., who helped lead Florida to the NCAA title this year.

“They have a lot of first- and second-year players that are going to be contributors to their main team,” Sherman said. “We’ll have to see how deep they go just because this is their second tournament, so they might have seen enough of them in the Utah portion. But if they bring these guys and give them some games, it felt like the starting point.”

The Minnesota Timberwolves closed as the +650 second choice, followed by the Toronto Raptors at 7-1 and the Washington Wizards at 10-1.

Sherman said teams that have historically had the most success at the NBA Summer League have been led by players heading into their second season.

“Usually it’s been the second-year players, having some NBA experience,” he said. “You’ve got Dalton Knecht playing for the Lakers, for example. We’ll see how long he goes. You make these odds based on the perception of the rosters, and you try to find out how long they’re going to play. That’s the toughest thing to handicap.

“You’re not expecting the top players to play much.”

Sherman expects Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 pick by the Dallas Mavericks, to sit out the rest of the Summer League after making his NBA debut Thursday against the Lakers.

“That’s why the Mavericks are long shots at 50-1,” Sherman said.

Nothing but Nets

Sherman bet on the Nets to win the Summer League because he believed they were mispriced at more than 40-1. Brooklyn, which set an NBA record for the most first-round picks used in a single draft with five, was as high as 50-1 at Boyd Gaming. The Nets closed at 25-1 at the Westgate.

“I like the Nets because they had five first-round picks this year. Four of those guys are going to be playing,” Sherman said before the event tipped off Thursday. “When they drafted those guys, there was a lot of talk about them not doing so well drafting them. So I think those four players are going to be motivated to show that what the critics said about them (was wrong).”

The Nets will showcase first-round picks Egor Demin (No. 8), Nolan Traore (No. 19), Ben Saraf (No. 26) and Danny Wolf (No. 27). Drake Powell, the No. 22 pick, is out with knee tendinitis.

“I would think those guys are going to play reasonably deep into it,” Sherman said.

Information-based event

Sherman’s top tip for betting on NBA Summer League games is to stay on top of the information.

“I would pay attention to the beat writers to see who’s going to be in and out of the lineup each day because it’s going to affect the line and it’s going to move,” he said. “You might find a team that’s 50-1 that plays their guys throughout the whole tournament and some of the teams at the top might say a game or two is all we wanted to see from these guys.

“That’s the most difficult thing about betting this stuff.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.