MLB Betting: Diamondbacks could be best in NL West

Micah Roberts, an analyst for The Linemakers on SportingNews.com and a former sports book director, makes three win-total predictions for the major league season:

Arizona Diamondbacks (Over 82)

You never want to put too much emphasis on what happened during spring training, but it’s hard not to be impressed with what the Diamondbacks have done in Cactus League play. There were lots of questions heading into March, and many of those were answered in such a satisfactory mode that Arizona now appears to be the best team in the National League West, which makes taking 5-1 odds to win the division attractive.

The Diamondbacks’ big move was getting one of baseball’s elite starters, Zack Greinke, to anchor the rotation. Another significant move was trading for Shelby Miller to be the No. 2 starter. The hard-throwing Miller was 6-17 with Atlanta last season, but he got little support from the lowest-scoring team in baseball in Atlanta. He allowed two or fewer runs in 22 of his 33 starts, pitched two shutouts and finished with a 3.02 ERA. Greinke and Miller had outstanding springs, and that 1-2 combination Arizona will throw every five days will help pile up lots of series wins throughout the season.

But what about the third starter? That was one of biggest questions, and Patrick Corbin came through with one of the best springs of any pitcher. Corbin missed the 2014 season after Tommy John surgery, but he’s looking better than before the injury. In five spring starts over 21 innings, Corbin allowed four earned runs (1.71 ERA) while striking out 24 and walking three.

Arizona’s hitting never was a question, but it cranked things up a couple of notches with a spring-leading .319 batting average while also running freely and stealing 34 bases. The combination of great starting pitching and hot hitting gave the Diamondbacks the best record in Cactus League while regularly blowing out opponents.

If buying the theory that Arizona will be contending for the division title and a playoff berth, then the ripple effect is the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, preseason NL West favorites, can be expected to play below expectations. The loss of Greinke will have a much larger effect on the Dodgers than most experts believe.

Chicago Cubs (Under 93½)

Did St. Louis and Pittsburgh change divisions? Those teams finished ahead of the Cubs last year in the NL Central. Jason Heyward and John Lackey were nice offseason acquisitions, but the romance of the Cubs’ history has us a little too eager to want to believe this is their year. The public has pushed this win total too high. It’s hard to believe that Jake Arrieta, last year’s NL Cy Young winner, can duplicate his 2015 achievements (22-6, 1.77 ERA). The bullpen isn’t exactly a strength, either.

St. Louis Cardinals (Over 86½)

The last time the Cardinals failed to win 86 games was in 2007 (83-79), and there’s no reason to suggest this will be the year the streak ends. St. Louis posted 88 wins or more in each of the past five seasons. The Cardinals know how to win. Their starting rotation might be the best in baseball, and the bullpen, which is mostly still intact, had the best save conversion percentage (80.5) in the majors last season. Great pitching always wins, and the Cardinals have lots of it.