NFL Betting: Back the Pack as slight road favorites

With smoke, mirrors and a Hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers seem to have turned their season back in the right direction.

There has been more to Green Bay's winning formula, of course, such as running back Eddie Lacy's return to a prominent role in the offense. Lacy and Rodgers will try to carry the Packers past the Raiders today in Oakland.

"Lacy finally has shown up as the tough runner the Packers have needed," Systemplays.com handicapper Doug Fitz said.

Lacy reached the 100-yard rushing mark in three of the Packers' past four games, including a 124-yard performance in a 28-7 victory over Dallas last week. After a three-game losing streak in early November, Green Bay (9-4) is back atop the NFC North with a one-game lead on Minnesota.

Fitz is backing the Packers, who have been bet from 3- to 3½-point favorites. Oakland (6-7) is 2-4 straight up and against the spread at home this season.

The Raiders are off a 15-12 win at Denver that Fitz called "a bit of a mirage" because Oakland was outgained by 184 yards.

"What appeared to be a promising start to the season has not continued for the Raiders," Fitz said. "With the Packers on a roll, and Oakland facing a likely letdown following a huge division road win, the Packers should cover the short number."

The Packers are 4-2 ATS on the road. On the downside, Green Bay's top cornerback, Sam Shields, is out with a concussion.

Fitz (@fitz_doug on Twitter) scouts the rest of today's Week 15 lineup:

Chicago at Minnesota (-5½): Despite the Bears' 5-8 record, they have been outstanding as 'dogs, going 7-4 overall and 5-1 ATS when getting 3½ to 9½ points. The Bears are better on the road, too, with a 4-2 straight-up record. Jay Cutler outdueled Rodgers in a rare win at Green Bay in late November. The Vikings are the better team, but the line looks too high. This is a strong recommendation on Chicago.

Atlanta at Jacksonville (-3): I have a problem with the Jaguars being favorites, and normally I would jump on the other side. The problem is the other side has been a train wreck with no end in sight. The Falcons have lost six in a row straight up and nine in a row ATS. Since I can't muster the courage to play Jacksonville, and no way I'm touching Atlanta, under the total (49) gets a lukewarm recommendation. The hapless Falcons have scored a total of 29 points in their past three games.

Houston at Indianapolis (-2): This game could determine the eventual AFC South winner, despite the teams sharing 6-7 records. It appears Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will play, so I'll give a weak nod to Indianapolis mainly because of home-field advantage. But the Texans have been playing a little better lately.

Kansas City (-6½) at Baltimore: A little money is showing on the underdog, but I won't go against the Chiefs, who are on a seven-game win streak that includes a 6-1 ATS record. Sometimes you just have to play the better team even if the number looks a little high. The Ravens are simply playing out the string, and their quarterback play has been terrible since Joe Flacco went down.

Buffalo (-2) at Washington: Everyone likes the Bills, and the number has moved about a field goal from the opener. I agree with the move. LeSean McCoy leads the league's second-ranked rush offense. It's a good matchup against the weak, 24th-ranked Redskins rush defense.

Tennessee at New England (-14): Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is listed as questionable with an illness, so the line has dipped to 13½ at some books. I never lay double digits in the NFL under any circumstances. Anyone with a pulse knows the Patriots should easily win this game, assuming Brady plays, but they are 5-16 ATS in their past 21 games when favored by 13 points or more. This is a weak recommendation on the Titans.

Arizona (-3½) at Philadelphia: The Eagles are finally starting to play some good football, riding a two-game win streak into this flex-scheduled night game. The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS in their past four games. I think this spot favors Philadelphia, which is in a must-win situation. Arizona has clinched a playoff spot and is possibly looking ahead to next week's home game against the Packers.

Carolina (-4) at N.Y. Giants: This could be the game that ends Carolina's undefeated streak, and sharp money is on the 'dog. The Giants are in a must-win situation, and the Panthers are close to wrapping up home field throughout the NFC playoffs. The injury to running back Jonathan Stewart might hinder Carolina's offense. This is a strong recommendation on the Giants.

Cleveland at Seattle (-15): Once again, I won't lay double digits, although I give Cleveland almost no chance to be competitive in this spot. The Browns won't score much, with the Seattle defense swarming quarterback Johnny Manziel. The Seahawks probably will take a huge lead and then run the ball to chew up the clock. That should translate into fewer points, so this is a slight lean under the total (43).

Miami at San Diego (-1½): Although this could be the Chargers' last game in San Diego, it's doubtful most of their laid-back fans even care. I'm not sure the players care much, either, near the end one of the team's worst seasons in recent memory. The Chargers are simply going through the motions. I'll take a couple of points with a slightly better Miami team. The Dolphins seem motivated to play hard to help interim coach Dan Campbell get the permanent job.

Denver at Pittsburgh (-6½): This is a difficult game to figure. The number looks too high, but the Broncos are playing on one of the toughest home fields against the league's toughest quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers put up 33, 45, 30, 30 and 38 points in their past five games. The Denver offense produced just four field goals last week. However, Denver's top-ranked defense can slow Roethlisberger enough to keep the game close, so this is a slight lean to Denver.

Cincinnati (-6) at San Francisco: AJ McCarron gets his first start in place of injured Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. Teams typically put together maximum effort in the first game after a star player goes down. Even though the 49ers are a respectable 4-2 ATS at home, I'll lean to the Bengals because of their overwhelming talent advantage.

— Compiled by Matt Youmans/Review-Journal